Cooling

With spot crude prices rising at a stronger-than-expected pace, actual cooling degree days (CDDs) about 13% higher than a year ago and the natural gas consumption impact per CDD above 2004, the stage is set for continued upward pressure on gas prices for the next few months, according to Stephen Smith Energy Associates.

Pressured lower by two preceding days of screen weakness that was extended into the July contract’s expiry Tuesday and by declines of cooling demand that had either already occurred or were getting started in several areas, cash quotes fell across the board Tuesday.

Midweek cooling trends apparently carried more price boosting punch than some traders had expected. Nearly all points were between flat and up nearly half a dollar Wednesday (however, only one point — El Paso San Juan-Bondad — was at the high end; gains elsewhere were limited to less than a quarter).

Prices fell at all points Monday as small gains in cooling load in some areas were outweighed by the fading of a potential tropical storm threat to offshore production and the previous Friday’s screen weakness.

Swing prices moved lower again Tuesday despite hints that cooling demand will be rising slowly in the next few days. New declines were fairly moderate in the East, ranging from barely lower to just shy of 15 cents, with a majority of points falling less than a dime. Declining weather load caused western markets to record bigger losses from a little under a dime to slightly more than 20 cents.

Fueled by the first real blast of warm air of the cooling season, natural gas futures prices rallied and retreated Monday as traders alleviated oversold conditions and then turned and took profits. Local traders were active in the price movement, adding liquidity and volatility to the gas pit at Nymex.

Rising air conditioning load across the South was insufficient to avert modest to sizeable price declines at nearly all points Wednesday. Flat Southern California border and Transwestern Permian numbers were the exception to declines ranging from about a nickel to about 30 cents in the rest of the market.

With last week’s heat menace dissipating in key market areas and the generally lower demand of a weekend coming up, no one got caught by surprise when prices softened Friday by mostly double-digit amounts. A majority of declines were between a dime and 20 cents, with larger ones concentrated in California and a few Northeast citygates.

The geographic divide between gas markets seldom has been moredistinctive than it was Friday. Opposite corners of the U.S.represented the extremes: Northeast citygates skyrocketed by nearly20 cents while the OFO-hit Southern California border plunged byabout 20 cents. In general it was another case of East being Eastand West being West, and the twain had almost nothing in common.