Consensus

Canadian natural gas exports, defying consensus forecasts of shrinkage, held firm and even increased modestly during first quarter of 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said.

State lawmakers in West Virginia have created a bipartisan 10-member panel to discuss and seek a consensus over Marcellus Shale regulatory reform.

Consensus was hard to find among natural gas cash market traders Monday as the recent trend of squirrelly back-and-forth futures trading left cash points all over the board for delivery on Tuesday. Most regions saw a healthy mix of gains and losses on Monday, with the exception of the Rockies and the West Coast, which were uniformly higher.

Offering high hopes but no consensus on a strategy, the latest report from the Colorado Oil & Gas Association (COGA) calls natural gas a potential U.S. energy solution, although it hastened to point out that opinions still vary widely on how to make that happen.

Tradition Energy analysts on Tuesday piled on to 2011 consensus outlook by several energy teams regarding U.S. natural gas prices. The possibility that prices may strengthen over the coming months appears “challenging,” they said.

With less than a month remaining before an election that could change the makeup of both chambers of the Pennsylvania General Assembly, the state’s Republican-controlled Senate is preparing to take up legislation (SB 1155) approved last week by the Democratic-controlled House that would impose a 39 cents/Mcf (about 10%) severance tax on natural gas drilling in the state.

The consensus forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is pointing increasingly towards an unusually active season, with Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. now calling for 18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, five of them intense (Category Three or greater). The hurricane season, which officially begins Tuesday (June 1), will be “hyperactive” with a magnified threat to the Northeast United States, the forecaster said.

There was no general consensus on natural gas prices on Monday as cash averages across the country picked up a few pennies or declined by a few pennies. The indecisiveness also carried over in the futures arena where the June contract declined for the fifth consecutive day, but only by 1.8 cents to $4.017.

In a White House session with congressional leaders last Tuesday to form consensus on key legislative issues, President Obama said he would be willing to meet Republicans halfway on energy issues. He further said Democrats and Republicans needed to come together on legislation that promotes both clean and traditional sources of energy.