There was no general consensus on natural gas prices on Monday as cash averages across the country picked up a few pennies or declined by a few pennies. The indecisiveness also carried over in the futures arena where the June contract declined for the fifth consecutive day, but only by 1.8 cents to $4.017.

While most Northeast locations increased by a few pennies to 6 cents, points in Texas were almost unanimously down — mostly by a few pennies. Out west, California spots managed to either pick up a penny or two or remain flat from Friday, while the Rockies saw small increases, small declines or no changes.

“The cash market was a little bit down on Monday, but there really wasn’t a whole lot of change in pricing really,” said a eastern marketer. “It was a little slow, but we got some bidweek done. Nothing really exciting, just general index-related things and a few basis deals here and there.”

The marketer noted that futures declined slightly, but added that the $4 price level’s place in the market continues to remain a focus. “The $4 price level is a little bit of magnet, but nobody really believes we’ll fall much below it. More likely we’ll hover at this price, move up again at some point, but likely return. The market appears attracted to this price point.”

Barclays Capital analyst James Crandell said he believes the recent decline in natural gas futures values has been extended by Friday’s gas rig count.

“In [Friday] morning’s trade, prices were relatively stronger, but were urged lower by a weekly rig count report that showed an 18 rig increase,” he said. “Prior to this release, three of the past four weekly changes had been net declines in the rig count, stirring up hope that a widespread decline in drilling might be under way. This week’s increase takes the gas-directed rig count almost to the 2010 highs, and puts the horizontal rig count at a new all-time high.”

While current fundamentals are weak, the summer could offer some traction for natural gas bulls if recent forecasts hold up. AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Bastardi on Monday called for a hot summer for most of the nation, with much warmer temperatures than the summer of 2009 (see related story). He added that the latter part of the summer could be warmer than the beginning for much of the nation, with the exception of the West Coast, which could begin cooler in June.

“There will be substantial warmth for much of the U.S. this year,” said Bastardi. “The warmest of the summer months relative to averages for the nation should be August and our forecast is for overall warmth to last into September.”

Bastardi is also expecting the 2010 hurricane season to be a top-10 activity year, sharply contrasting last year’s calm season. “Hurricane season will start early and stay late this year,” said Bastardi. “My biggest fear is that it goes beyond the nasty season I have forecasted since February. 2010 may be remembered as the hurricane season from Hades.” He is forecasting seven storms to impact the United States, five of those being hurricanes.

More immediately, weather watchers and traders are focusing on an area of low pressure to the north of the Bahamas. Whether it develops into a pre-season tropical storm or not, it does come as an early reminder that the official start to the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is just days away.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists still believe this feature has little, if any, chance of developing into a true tropical system. The more likely scenario is that it takes on both tropical and nontropical characteristics, making it a “hybrid” storm, the forecasting firm said, noting that hybrid systems can be named as subtropical storms or depressions. AccuWeather.com noted that Subtropical Storm Andrea formed in early May of 2007 off the Southeast coast. The first name on the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season list is Alex.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there is a “medium chance” (30%) that this system becomes a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. As of early Monday afternoon the low pressure system was located 475 miles southwest of Bermuda, but had not shown signs of becoming more organized, the NHC said.

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