Cents

The June Nymex futures contract kicked up 2.0 cents to $2.169 onWednesday, amid a relatively light trading session and an extremelylimited three-cent trading range. Estimated volume came in at amere 43,390 contracts. “Trading was extremely orderly today,” abroker reported. “There was no real panic. Most of the volume wasEFPs and spreads today, with very little outright trading.” Hethinks part of the reason why speculative activity was limited isthat a satellite which transmits Nymex data to several vendors wasapparently down yesterday, and that prevented traders from gettingnecessary real-time price information.

The June Nymex contract lost another 4.4 cents to $2.134 Monday,as traders continued to test just how long the spot month can holdabove major technical support at $2.11. June reached a low of$2.125 yesterday before last minute buying pushed the contract toits higher settle.

The AGA storage report proved to be an anchor on natural gasfutures prices yet again on Wednesday, as the spot June contractfell 5.2 cents to settle at $2.204. The latest report came in at100 Bcf worth of injections, which increases the surplus versuslast year by 30 Bcf to 403 Bcf. Total estimated volume came in at59,231.

The June Nymex contract made it 2 for 2 for up days this week,as the spot month gained another 4.1 cents to settle Tuesday at$2.256. Sources said the market followed cash prices higher butalso warmed further gains may be limited. “This is the fifth timeJune has failed to rise above $2.27. Moreover, the daily lows havebeen rising also, so sooner or later something’s going to have togive,” an analyst told GPI.

The June Nymex contract inched 2.4 cents higher to $2.159 onThursday, as traders entered a slight buying mode following the 8.0cent decline June turned in the previous session. “Today was a bigday in that the contract held technical support at $2.11,” ananalyst told GPI. Total estimated volume came in at 47,753contracts.

The June Nymex contract spiraled 8.0 cents lower to $2.130 onWednesday, thanks to what an analyst said was traders unloadinglong positions ahead of the latest AGA storage report. That report,which came in at 78 Bcf, was slightly above the expected range of50-75 Bcf, and nearly double the 46 Bcf report from last year.

The June Nymex contract slipped 4.2 cents to $2.215 on Tuesday,thanks to what one analyst said was intraday selling off technicalresistance at $2.26. Total estimated volume came in at 39,705contracts. “Cash started to rally, so futures have pretty muchconverged with cash. The market is being very cautious, after thebreak last week,” a broker told Daily GPI.

The June Nymex contract may have only slipped a mere 1.9 centsto $2.202 on Friday, but that small price change may loom verylarge indeed. By virtue of not settling above $2.22, “we’ve takenout and settled below the up trendline, establishing at least ashort term downtrend, if not a sideways trading range,” said TomSaal, Vice-President of Pioneer Futures in Miami. “I think themarket rode up to $2.70 because of speculative buying, and also onthe expectations of a hotter summer. Well, we haven’t met thoseexpectations yet, and now the market has tumbled back down,” hesaid.

The June Nymex contract showed what hefty storage activity cando to the market by falling 7.7 cents to settle Thursday at $2.221The only good news for bulls is that the contract managed torebound after briefly falling below major support at the $2.160level. “The market has been wounded. People ignored the storagenumbers for too long, but they can’t ignore them anymore. The 345Bcf surplus is the largest we’ve had this year, and we’ve had fourstraight weeks where we’ve added to that surplus,” an analyst toldGPI.