Cash

Most cash trading points managed to squeeze out minor upticksWednesday despite a modestly softer screen. Activity was subdued asweather fundamentals remained as relatively mild for summer as theywere for much of last winter.

The cash market settled down to mostly small gains Tuesday,although quite a few points registered close to flat. The largerincreases of a nickel or more were concentrated in California andthe Permian Basin and on CIG, which played belated catch-up withother Rockies pipes by rising almost a dime.

Prices failed to fake out anyone Wednesday. With Tuesday’s latesoftness on the Nymex screen carrying over into Wednesday and thesubsidence of “the big bakeoff” in the Northeast, as one producercalled it, it didn’t take a crystal ball to make a bear marketcall. The larger declines on either side of a dime tended tocluster in the Gulf Coast, Appalachian, Northeast, Midcontinent andMidwest markets, while western drops generally were around a nickelor less. Unlike the late screen-related fallbacks reported Tuesday,traders said a number of points saw slight upticks in late dealsWednesday.

Cash prices ignored a falling screen and the usual lower gasdemand of a weekend, instead using growing heat in the Northeastand Midwest to fashion an overall flat market Friday. The East hadmore of the mild firmness while small declines tended to clustermore in the West. That was best illustrated by the day’s extremes:increases of more than a nickel for citygates in the hot and humidNortheast, as opposed to a drop of a nickel at the PG&Ecitygate, where the utility had a high-inventory OFO in effect (seeTransportation Notes).

Nearly every trading point continued to build Wednesday on theslight degree of bullishness established on Tuesday. The majorityof increases were moderate, within the range of 2-4 cents. Therewas “just a little more heat” to raise cooling load a notch higher,said a Midcontinent source, and the futures screen literally put inits 2 cents worth with a rise of a little over that amount.

Cash prices proved remarkably resistant Friday to the softnessthat usually accompanies lowered demand for a weekend period. TheGulf Coast and Northeast citygates were essentially flat, whilemost of the small declines were concentrated in the West andMidcontinent. Sources attributed the relatively firm pricing tomodest support from a slightly higher futures screen, along withtrader anticipation of a return to hotter weather morecharacteristic of June than last week’s below-normal thermometerreadings throughout much of the East.

“The Three Stooges didn’t fall as fast or as hard,” one traderremarked, as the usual weekend demand crunch, a bearish 6- to10-day forecast and Thursday’s futures market plunge were cited asreasons for the nearly universal drops of over a nickel. New YorkCitygate prices were among the hardest hit Friday, as Monday’shighpoint of $2.75 has given way to the mid $2.40s at the week’sclose.

Everyone seems to be “joining the slow club,” one sourceremarked Wednesday as the last day of June futures trading onlynudged June baseload and the day-trading markets slightly higherfrom the holding patterns established Tuesday. Today will be muchmore active, he said, because the Nymex closes early Friday due toMemorial Day, and time is running out to get deals done.

As the countdown to today’s May futures expiry continuedTuesday, swing cash prices certainly did their part to encouragethe bulls in Nymex’s trading pit. But in a form of reciprocatingsupport, sources said late-April price rises of about a dime inmost markets were based almost solely on screen upticks Monday andTuesday. Except for moderate air conditioning load in Texas and theSoutheast and a bit of lingering chill in the West, weatherfundamentals were almost non-existent, they said.