Bearishness

After faltering a couple of times earlier in the week, the general bearishness of weather fundamentals reasserted itself Friday. Even with their first prior-day futures support in more than a week, prices fell at nearly all points.

Despite modestly supportive prior-day futures, the cash market acknowledged the general bearishness of weather fundamentals in falling at nearly all points Tuesday. The remote threat Monday of an early-season tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico had pretty much disappeared a day later.

The Florida citygate was the sole location left out of falling prices at all other points Tuesday. The overall bearishness was primarily due to the previous day’s plunge of 76.8 cents by April futures, and to a lesser degree to the relatively moderate shoulder-month weather that several areas are experiencing in mid-March.

Was it a case of “you can’t keep a good market down?” Following two days of mostly falling prices, which reflected the general bearishness of market influences, cash quotes for the weekend rallied at a majority of points Friday.

The market apparently got most of the expiring September futures-related bearishness out of its system Tuesday, because Wednesday’s numbers were close to flat in a majority of cases and weighted slightly toward the higher side, especially in gains of up to 8 cents in the Rockies and San Juan Basin.

Despite cold weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and associated up ticks in physical gas prices, natural gas futures slid lower Monday in another in a growing string of lackluster trading sessions. After pushing prices lower in the morning, local traders covered their shorts in the afternoon when it became apparent a close below $5.00 was not in the cards. May finished at $5.06, down 8.6 cents for the session. At 42,486, estimated volume was extremely light.

In a market that was already weakened by technical bearishness, natural gas futures were sent spiraling lower Friday on reports that the El Nino weather pattern will bring above-normal temperatures to the central United States this winter.

In a stunning show of bearishness that had even the most seasoned traders shaking their heads, natural gas futures continued lower Friday as sellers demoted prices to new 13-month lows. A gap lower opening set the tone of the session, and bulls were never able to recover. The August contract spent most of the day trading near its $3.055 low, closing 18.4 cents weaker at $3.096.