Bear

The apparent short-term correction in this bear market may have come to an end Monday as the January contract busted through and closed below Friday’s low, ending the day down a hefty 16 cents to $2.686/MMBtu. With very little in the way of bullish fundamentals available, other than some slightly chilly weather in northeastern markets, some observers see the potential for more sharp declines as the contract makes its way toward expiration next week.

If you are a futures bear, it goes without saying that you have had quite a run over the past eight months. After all, the market has repeatedly given you price-negative technical and fundamental news on which to trade. And even when the market was hit with a bullish influence such as a tropical storm or a round of short-covering, the rally has been short-lived. In possibly the crowning example of this bearishness, the American Gas Association announced yesterday not only that a whopping 86 Bcf had been injected into storage last week, but also that they were forced to revise — as many market participants had expected — the refill from the week prior from 3 Bcf to 50 Bcf.

In a topsy-turvy session that left both bull and bear searching for answers, natural gas futures slipped lower Thursday as traders took profits following Wednesday’s shocking storage news and resultant 37.4-cent advance. At the closing bell yesterday, the September contract was 10.1 cents lower at $3.367.

While federal regulators may be a bit “bearish” on natural gas pipeline projects, that’s a good thing, according to PG&E Gas Transmission Northwest, which is still waiting for its final okay from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on environmental safeguards for its certificated 2002 pipeline expansion in Idaho and a small part of Washington state. It expects the final, final okay by the end of this week.

In a session that had a little for both bull and bear, natural gas futures spiraled higher early Thursday only to crash lower late in the day as traders were finally successful breaking beneath support. In doing so the prompt contract slipped 5.9 cents lower to close at $4.054.

Adding to a string of losses that would give even a Nasdaq bear cause for celebration, natural gas futures funneled lower last week as traders continued to factor in the impact of seemingly plentiful gas supply in a market that currently lacks much of a seasonal demand component. Taking over where the May contract left off, June closed 7.3 cents lower on Friday at $4.867. With that the June contract continued the trend, adding to its week-long string of losses.

In a trading session that won’t soon be forgotten by bull norbear yesterday, natural gas futures marched easily higher as earlylong accumulation by funds morphed into a buying free-for-all whencommercials and locals entered the ring. After setting its dailylow during the first hour of trading at $5.80, it was up, up andaway for December, as it notched a new all-time commodity high at$6.025. The prompt month finished 31.8 cents higher on the day at$6.016. Meanwhile, soon to be spot month January was no slouch,gaining 29.6 cents to close at $6.002.

Dallas Cowboy fans are not alone. It has been a tough month ofSundays for natural gas bear traders as they have been forced towatch Friday’s downward price momentum gradually lose steam duringSunday evening Access trading, setting the stage for a pricerecovery when the regular open-outcry session re-opens Monday.

While Mondays have been a bear trader’s best friend, Wednesdays(last week’s Wednesday excepted) have given bulls a reason to smilelately and yesterday was no exception as prices moved higher in twodistinct buying binges.