Autumn

The reality of seasonal autumn weather — with both heating and cooling load on the low side — began to exact a more bearish influence on the market Thursday, with most points falling by 2-3 cents to about 15 cents. Most numbers were close to flat, with other points ranging from unchanged to nearly a dime higher.

Rising prices grew even more prominent in the market Wednesday as enough regions are starting to feel enough early-autumn chill to prompt noticeable heating load. It isn’t much yet, as overnight lows in the 40s and 50s remain the most common temperature depths, but abetted by a prior-day gain of 1.6 cents by November futures it was sufficient to drive most points higher by generally small amounts.

In trading for flows through the end of September, prices fell at all points Thursday as the continuing transition to seasonal autumn weather combined with abundant storage levels put further negative pressure on the cash market. The incorporation of the usual loss of industrial load over a weekend was another bearish influence, as was the absence of any near-term tropical storm threats to Gulf of Mexico production.

Although early autumn gas futures prices are still above $7, quite a few analysts are saying they could drop as much as $3, maybe more, before the injection season ends. Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA), predicted last week that Henry Hub prices could hit $4/MMBtu or even lower as many storage fields approach their maximum capacity.