Appeared

Traders on Wednesday appeared to be tempering their expectations of cold weather being able to prompt market gains as the January contract posted a decline for the third straight day. The prompt-month contract recorded a low of $4.511 in afternoon trading before closing the day at $4.530, down 23.2 cents.

After pushing a few pennies higher in low-volume trading on Friday, the upward momentum appeared to run out heading into Monday’s regular session as the January natural gas contract plummeted back below $5. The prompt-month contract reached a low of $4.823 before closing out the day at $4.848, down 34.4 cents from Friday’s finish.

Devon Energy Corp.’s decision to sell all of its Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and overseas assets may have come as a surprise to many, but most energy analysts appeared in favor of the plan, calling it a “bold move” that proves the company’s belief in the future of natural gas.

The softening trend of cash prices appeared to have slowed to a near-standstill Tuesday as most losses were in single digits that day and were nearly offset by flat to higher locations. However, larger drops extended to a majority of points on the following day, and the downhill momentum got even steeper Thursday as mostly large declines (all in double digits) swept through the entire market.

An adventure north of $4 appeared to be a bridge too far — at least on Friday — as the October contract grabbed the $4 handle two separate times during the day before closing at $3.985, up three pennies from Thursday’s close and up 20.7 cents from the previous week’s finish.

Natural gas explorers appeared to be cutting their capital expenditures (capex) almost as soon as the new year began, but some producers are beginning to spend more and drill more — a scenario that may lead to more pain in the next few months, Raymond James & Associates Inc. analysts said Monday.

Price drops at nearly all points Wednesday appeared to be at least partial justification for some traders’ belief that the overall firmness on Tuesday was not justified by weak weather fundamentals and the previous day’s futures decline of 12.8 cents.

The cash market appeared to be taking more heed of a well established fact Thursday: with its end less than two weeks away, this has been a rather mild spring with little in the way of weather-based demand for natural gas. What had been generally small gains at most points on Wednesday reversed into small losses in a majority of the market Thursday.

After scouting both lower and higher prices on Monday, natural gas futures traders appeared content to relax on Tuesday as the May contract traded a tight range before closing at $3.689, up 6.1 cents on the day.