The cash market appeared to be taking more heed of a well established fact Thursday: with its end less than two weeks away, this has been a rather mild spring with little in the way of weather-based demand for natural gas. What had been generally small gains at most points on Wednesday reversed into small losses in a majority of the market Thursday.

The previous day’s 2.3-cent screen loss was a further, albeit minor, depressant for cash quotes. And although Thursday morning’s storage report was marginally bullish, it couldn’t obscure the omnipresent reality that the industry is rapidly running out of inventory space early in the traditional injection season.

Only two points saw its loss reach double digits amid overall declines ranging from 2-3 cents to about a dime. Most of the locations that were flat to about 15 cents higher were in the West and Midcontinent.

July futures, which had been rather stingy with support for cash numbers previously this week, will provide ample backing for the weekend market Friday after jumping 22.5 cents Thursday. The Energy Information Administration’s report of a 106 Bcf storage injection for the week ending June 6 fell only a little short of consensus expectations in the low 110s Bcf. At least a few Nymex traders, however, apparently looked at any rare bullish development as a buying opportunity; they may also have been impressed by the continuing price strength of crude oil (see related story).

Comfortably mild to cool remains the general weather outlook for the Northeast and Midwest. Although one forecaster looks for relatively warm highs of 80 and 84 Friday in New York City and Philadelphia, respectively, low pressure and a cold front moving through the region will limit any potential cooling load going into the weekend, according to The Weather Channel. Most of the Midwest is expected to peak in the vicinity of 70.

Even with most of Texas due to top out in the mid to high 90s Friday, intrastate cooling load was unable to avert losses of about a nickel at Houston Ship Channel and Katy, although Waha numbers saw a small gain. Heat levels toward the eastern South remain slightly subpar with summer on the horizon, as many locations will fail to reach the 90-degree level.

Friday lows in the 40s at some elevated locations in the Rockies likely provided only a tiny bit of heating load, as such areas tend to be sparsely populated. Much of the West remains status quo: hot — but not as much as normal — in the desert Southwest, and mild to cool in California and the Pacific Northwest. But Western Canada is getting downright balmy, with highs around 80 predicted for Alberta’s Calgary and Edmonton Friday. Despite the moderate forecast, NOVA Inventory Transfer eked out a gain of a couple of pennies or so Thursday.

Florida Gas Transmission kept an Overage Alert Day in effect for a second day, and the Florida citygate responded with Thursday’s largest advance.

Otherwise pipeline constraints have dwindled to almost nil, but El Paso, which nearly always has as least one or two maintenance projects in progress somewhere on its system at any given time, said linepack was getting high enough again for it to set the probability of declaring a Strained Operating Condition to “moderate.”

Chicago citygate volumes traded on the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) platform took a dive. The citygate fell a little less than a nickel in ICE deals totaling 575,800 MMBtu Thursday; a day earlier it had hit 693,400 MMBtu.

Southern power generators must have been activating some extra gas-fired peaking generators, a Gulf Coast trader, because she saw same-day prices rising as the day went on. She cited late same-day deals at $3.87 into ANR-Southeast and $3.70 into Columbia Gulf-onshore, both well above their next-day averages. It’s rare for ANR to command such a premium to Columbia Gulf, she said, but she chalked it up as likely due to special circumstances in one case or the other.

Unlike rising prices for next-day flow, which often indicate the direction of the following day’s cash market, the trader said she didn’t think the same held true for intraday numbers. However, Thursday’s futures spike ought to be able to lift most weekend cash numbers, she added, and it likely won’t hurt the gas market that stock prices were strong all around.

The trader noted that thunderstorms had cooled off the North Texas area a little, but highs were about to start reaching the mid 90s and possibly higher again. One slightly bullish prospect for Gulf Coast prices next week, she said, is that electric generators are telling her it’s going to get even hotter both in Texas and most of the South.

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