Aftermarket

The October aftermarket got going on a moderately bearish note Wednesday, but in nearly all cases the losses were quite a bit smaller than Tuesday’s September-ending quotes, which saw double-digit declines at all points. A bit of extra chill and the previous day’s gain of 4.5 cents in the first prompt-month trading by November futures may have helped spur increases at several points, mostly in the West, but weak weather fundamentals continued to deny increases in most of the East.

Friday’s launch of the February aftermarket was almost evenly divided between rising and falling points, but gains moderately outnumbered the losses. Frigid weather will be returning early this week in some areas, and Friday’s cash market had extra support from the previous day’s increase of 15.6 cents by March futures.

Cash prices continued to soften at most points in Friday’s launch of the September aftermarket even as the pace of Gulf of Mexico (GOM) shut-ins and evacuations quickened. The previous day’s 55.8-cent plunge by futures, generally moderate weather forecasts outside the Southwest and much of the South, the holiday loss of industrial load and a highly bearish storage report a day earlier apparently mattered more to cash traders than the accelerating offshore production losses.

Friday’s start of a buildup to a near-nationwide heat wave during the weekend led to a strong launch of the August aftermarket. Prices advanced at nearly all points Thursday. The firmness was enhanced by the previous day’s 11.8-cent futures gain.

No, it wasn’t a joke for April Fool’s Day. The April aftermarket did get off to a very strong start Monday with large advances across the board. Cash quotes got support in several areas: Tuesday forecasts of low temperatures around freezing or less from the Rockies/Pacific Northwest/Western Canada through the Midwest to inland sections of the Northeast; rising heat levels in parts of the South; an 11.3-cent screen gain Friday; and the return of industrial load from its typical weekend decline.

Prices managed to rebound Friday at quite a few scattered points as the March aftermarket got launched, but a majority of the cash market continued to slide due to forecasts of a mild weekend across much of the southern tier of states and seasonable conditions in most other areas. The drop of industrial demand that accompanies a weekend contributed to overall bearishness.

Following a strong launch of the May aftermarket on Monday, things had settled down a lot Tuesday. Price movement was mixed but leaned heavily toward the downside. Growing cooling load across the southern half of the U.S. was starting to flag slightly in some sections, proving to be insufficient at this point to sustain price firmness, while mild weather meant very little weather-based load at all in northern market areas.

As expected, exceptional support from a prior-day 80.3-cent futures spike allowed the February cash aftermarket to get off to a strong start by rallying at most points Wednesday. The show of firmness got an extra boost from icy precipitation moving into much of the Southeast Thursday, adding to already existing cold-weather demand.

The January aftermarket got off to a weak start with declines at a solid majority of points as bearish weather is expected to extend through at least mid-January. Losses ranged from a couple of pennies to about 45 cents.