This summer, look for the weather to be slightly warmer than the 30-year average but slightly cooler than last summer with fewer “named” storms in the Atlantic Ocean. So says Sempra Energy Trading meteorologist Dan Guertin, who offered up his forecast at the North American Gas Strategies Conference in Houston yesterday.

For the summer 2001 forecast, the United States was divided into eight different regions, and for each region, three or four representative cities were selected. The cooling degree days were then totaled for the cooling season (May through September) and averaged to come up with the CDD total for each region.

Slight adjustments were made to temperatures taken from past analog years to account for the long-term climate trends across North America. Adjusting past data to the current trend was necessary because forecasts based only on past analog years tend to have a “cold bias.”

For the Northeast, which includes Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the forecast calls for temperatures to be “very close to the long-term 30-year average and approximately one degree warmer than last year. In addition, more frequent heat waves are likely to occur this summer, especially in July and August.”

Southeast temperatures measured for Charlotte, Atlanta, Jacksonville and New Orleans “will play a large role in the overall U.S. gas balance.” Guertin forecasts weather to be above average throughout the region. “Drought conditions across Alabama, Georgia and Florida will likely lead to slightly higher daytime temperatures in these three states this summer.”

Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Houston and San Antonio were included in the Southern Plains forecast, and Guertin predicts that “severe drought conditions” which have eased in recent months, “are not likely to occur again this summer.” He said that temperatures will be “slightly warmer,” however, than the 30-year average and slightly cooler than last summer.

In California and Nevada, the forecast for Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco calls for temperatures to be “slightly warmer than the 30-year average and in line with the recent 10-year average.” Guertin said, “similar to last summer, strong heat waves will occasionally affect the major metropolitan areas of Los Angeles and San Francisco, resulting in daily high temperatures in the lower to middle 90’s.”

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