Following two days of active trading and sizable price swingsthe futures market traded quietly to either side of unchanged onWednesday. September futures closed at $1.819, managing a 0.7-centgain on the day.

Several traders contacted by NGI cited uncertainty surroundingthe American Gas Association storage report released Wednesdayafternoon as a reason for the cautious trade. That estimate,featuring a net injection of 75 Bcf, fell in line with industryexpectations in the 55-80 range, but did manage to trim theoft-quoted year on year surplus by 3 Bcf.

However, Pegasus Econometric Group feels the National WeatherService 6-10 day forecast calling for below normal temperaturesover a large section of the south including Texas is moreindicative of market direction. In their Natural Gas Report datedAug. 12, the group states “Given the choice between a focus on lastweek’s weather the natural gas market normally chooses to lookahead and, with cooler temperatures expected in the south, that’sbearish.”

Furthermore, Pegasus targets Tuesday’s $1.78 low which matchesthe March 1997 bottom as the next hurdle to the downside. IfSeptember falls through $1.78, it may attract a fresh round ofselling, the group explained.

As of 5:30 EST September was 3.2 cents lower to $1.787 inWednesday evening Access trade.

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