Passing without much fanfare, the release of the Energy Information Administration’s natural gas storage report was no match for changing forecasts for Hurricane Ivan’s path. The National Hurricane Center has sharply altered its path projections for the category four hurricane at least three times.

The hurricane originally was expected to hit the Gulf of Mexico head on, but projections early Thursday pointed to the storm lining up for a direct hit on Florida instead. However, late in the day Thursday, the NHC said it believed that Ivan would likely miss the peninsula in favor of the eastern Gulf.

The EIA reported that 80 Bcf was put into underground storage for the week ended Sept. 3, an injection that fell on the low side of most industry projections (77-105 Bcf). The actual injection paled into comparison to last year’s 99 Bcf build, which began the streak of unusually large builds in 2003.

Following this week’s report, October natural gas futures fell to a low of $4.59, falling short of the $4.56 low hit in overnight Access trade. However, the contract rebounded from that level to trade in the mid-$4.60s for the remainder of the day before closing at $4.658, up 2.7 cents on the day.

“The market is figuring out where the ranges are to see where everybody is setting up,” said Tom Saal of Miami-based Commercial Brokerage Corp. “The key thing is to find out which way the market is going to go after we find out where Ivan is going to go. I think we are in a period right now where the storage numbers are falling within the range of expectations, which is why we are not seeing the type of futures market movements that we saw before.”

Working gas in storage now stands at 2,775 Bcf, according to EIA estimates. Stocks are 257 Bcf higher than last year and 183 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,592 Bcf. The East region injected 50 Bcf, while the Producing and West regions added 22 Bcf and 8 Bcf, respectively.

Although Hurricane Ivan’s strength increased early Thursday to a category five hurricane, it had returned to a category four as of 5 p.m. (AST), according to the NHC. The center of the storm was about 350 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica, moving west-northwesterly near 15 mph. Wind speeds were clocked at near 150 mph.

Labeled the most powerful hurricane to hit the Caribbean in nearly a decade, officials ordered a complete evacuation of the Florida Keys on Thursday.

Following trading Thursday, Saal said he believes the market is susceptible to a big move. “The fundamentals in the background are bearish because of the lack of weather outside of the hurricane. Saal said the deciding factor on what way the market moves will be to literally see “which way the wind blows.” Whether Ivan hits Florida as currently expected or drifts into the Gulf unabated could make or break the market. “According to the most recent forecast, it looks like Ivan’s destination will depend on which way it goes over or around Jamaica,” he said.

With the latest projected storm track hitting the Gulf of Mexico, evacuations of natural gas and oil production workers in the eastern Gulf could be forthcoming.

“Quite simply, Ivan is incredibly impressive,” said Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper. “Wind speeds are now reported at 160 mph. While production rigs are designed to withstand extreme conditions, 160 mph is very extreme and damage would be expected for anything in the direct path.”

In observance of Sept. 11, 2001, NYMEX has delayed its regular session opening on Friday until 11:00 a.m. (EDT).

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