The colder weather appears to be providing some much needed relief to a packed pipeline and storage system, with storage withdrawals reported on Dominion Transmission’s system in the East, at the Egan salt dome in the Gulf Coast producing region and at Jackson Prairie and Colorado Interstate Gas’ (CIG) Latigo storage field in the West, according to Denver-based consulting firm Bentek Energy.

High gas storage levels across the country, in some cases greater than 100% of what was thought to be total working gas capacity, with still several weeks left in the traditional injection season have forced a number of pipeline operators to issue operational flow orders (OFO) and restrict shipper flexibility.

Dominion’s system right now is at 100% full, with about 290 Bcf of working gas in storage, Bentek reported. Dominion issued an OFO late last week and told shippers that gas receipts would be closely monitored and could face cuts if not kept in tight balance with nominations. The pipeline cut interruptible receipts at several locations and told shippers to keep a close eye on the electronic bulletin board for news of production shut-ins. However, colder weather has prompted heating demand and some gas is now being taken out of storage, which may relieve operational constraints.

Multiple other pipelines have issued notices to shippers that high storage levels are beginning to cause operational problems. Texas Eastern, CIG, Southern Natural (92% full storage), Transco (Leidy and Washington storage fields exceeding 95% full), PG&E (86% full), Questar, ANR (98% full), Tennessee and CenterPoint (100% full) all issued notices to shippers recently about high storage levels.

Texas Eastern said Friday its storage was “at unprecedented levels with a month remaining in the injection season,” causing concern about operational flexibility. The warnings pressured spot prices lower last week but the cold weather and heating load appear to be providing a home for some of that excess supply.

Cash prices shot sharply higher Monday and Tuesday. What that may mean is that working gas levels could end the injection season lower than expected but still at record highs. Even if the Energy Information Administration reports a relatively small 42 Bcf injection in this week’s storage report for the week ending Oct. 13, that still would put working gas levels only about 41 Bcf shy of the all-time record set in November 1990 of 3,472 Bcf with several additional weeks left in the injection season.

According to Bentek, the total working gas in storage in the U.S. currently is about 95.2% of capacity. Bentek’s data shows seven separate storage operations with working gas levels at or above what was thought to be 100% full, while 11 others are at 95% full or above. Among those are some of the largest gas storage operators in the nation.

Columbia Gas, which received regulatory authorization late last month to temporarily increase its maximum storage level in 11 of its storage fields by up to a combined 6.5 Bcf (see Daily GPI, Sept. 29), is already at 102% full with about 251.9 Bcf of working gas in storage, according to Bentek.

A number of other fields are at or above 100% full, including the following: CIG’s Latigo field with 8.55 Bcf in storage compared to a maximum working gas capacity of 8.3 Bcf; the AECO storage hub in Alberta with 125 Bcf of working gas in the ground, compared to 125 Bcf capacity; Northern Natural’s system with 69.4 Bcf in storage (102% full); Blue Lake storage is 100% full with 47.2 Bcf; and CenterPoint is 100% full with 37.6 Bcf of gas in storage.

Other important fields also are brimming over with gas, including Questar’s Clay Basin facility, which is 99% full with 50.1 Bcf of working gas; the Jackson Prairie storage field on Northwest Pipeline with 22.4 Bcf, or about 99% full; Texas Gas Transmission with 54.5 Bcf in storage (99% full); and the ANR Pipeline System with 188.3 Bcf of working gas, or about 98% full.

“We’ve certainly seen injections slow down at a number of facilities over the last two weeks,” said Bentek’s Rusty Braziel. “We had a trajectory that would have storage hit 3.8 Tcf by about Nov. 10. At this point in time, that would require injections over the next four weeks of nearly 90 Bcf [each], and I would say the odds of that happening now are pretty slim because of the colder weather and because the average over the last three weeks has been about 60 Bcf. It just doesn’t look like there are enough weeks left to get to a number that high. I suppose cold weather is trumping full storage at this point.

“All of our numbers say we are going to continue to inject gas over the next four weeks but just not at [high levels].” Braziel also said he doubts that high storage levels will force additional production shut-ins. Colder weather and sharply rising prices this week seem to support that conclusion.

Source: Bentek Energy. Bentek said that rather than revising its capacity numbers on individual storage systems each week as they move over 100%, it is reporting all capacity numbers based on best information available from pipelines and other industry sources. “We will only change maximum capacity numbers when we receive third party verification of revisions,” the Denver-based consulting firm said.

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