Forcing natural gas futures to go on a run in Thursday morning trading, an updated weather forecast from Salomon Smith Barney meteorologist Jon Davis points toward an “Arctic plunge” that is expected to grip most regions of the country in the second week of January.

Prior to the frigid blast over the next five to six days, temperatures are likely to be more of what the country experienced in December with very warm temperatures in the Plains and Rockies and cooler conditions in the eastern U.S., according to Davis.

Readings during the Jan. 2-7 period will be more than 15 degrees higher than normal — near record highs — in the Northern Plains and about 10-14 degrees higher than normal from the western Great Lakes to Texas to the interior Rockies. “Temps in the far eastern U.S. will be variable on a day to day basis, but over time, will average out to be within normal levels during the six- day period,” Davis said in his report. “As a result, heating needs will be near normal during the next six days in the eastern U.S. and well below normal in the middle of the country.”

Davis said the temperature trends during the second week of January are going to change “dramatically” as “major-league Arctic air” moves into the country. “This will, by far, be the most significant intrusion of Arctic air into the lower 48 so far this winter; it is much stronger than anything that moved into the U.S. all of last winter,” the meteorologist pointed out. He said the Arctic air is a portion of the extremely intense air mass that has been positioned in and around Siberia during the last few months. Constantly monitored, the airmass has appeared to be stationary until now, as a rather large portion of it has moved from Siberia to Alaska, northwest Canada, and regions near the North Pole.

Even the National Weather Service (NWS) is on board. While calling for above-normal temperatures for much of the country in its six- to 10-day forecast, NWS looks for below-normal temperatures over the eastern half of the country for the Jan. 9-15 time frame. Only California and the southwestern corner of the country are expected to see above normal temperatures during that period.

According to Davis, the atmospheric mechanisms are in place to force this Arctic air southward into the lower 48, first affecting the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains during the middle of next week as temperatures rapidly drop below zero across Montana and the Dakotas. “Beyond the middle of next week, the Arctic air will surge south and east and encompass most of the country by the weekend of January 11-12,” Davis said. The Arctic airmass is expected to impact all areas of the central and eastern U.S. — and indications are there will be more than one.

The West Coast is expected to sit out the big freeze because it is currently building a ridge of high pressure that will not allow the cold air to surge into the area.

Looking past the 12-day forecast, Davis said he expects further intrusions of Arctic air to plunge into the central and eastern U.S. Because of this multiple surge projection, the middle of January is expected to be a very cold period in the central and eastern regions. “We fully expect temps to drop below zero in much of the Central and Northern Plains, Midcontinent, and New England,” Davis said. “Obviously, the middle of January is going to be a timeframe which features very high heating needs from the East Coast to the Rockies.”

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