They didn’t make up all the ground lost in Friday’s plunge, but prices did see solid across-the-board rebounds Monday. Sources cited the continuing creep eastward in the northern tier of states of cold weather that had been confined to the West last week as a significant factor, but also mentioned delayed influence from a screen surge Friday and the return of industrial load following a weekend.

Upticks ranged from as little as a nickel to nearly half a dollar; most were above 20 cents. Traders reported that numbers were moving higher in late deals.

The market is beginning to get some fundamental legs underneath it as heating load spreads, a Houston-based source said. Wintry conditions from the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and Upper Plains were just starting to move into western sections of the Midwest late last week. On Monday they had extended through the Upper Midwest and by Tuesday would reach beyond the Great Lakes to upstate New York and northern New England, according to forecasts. The Pacific Northwest/Rockies cold also was penetrating farther south, bringing more seasonable temperatures (highs in low 70s) even into the formerly sizzling desert Southwest.

A couple of sources concurred that the appearance of cash strength Monday was somewhat illusory. Recalling that Henry Hub and prompt-month futures had not reached convergence from spreads reaching 60 cents or more at times in the last couple of months until just before the November bidweek, they pointed out that the gap had opened wide again. Monday’s Hub average was nearly 60 cents below the December screen’s closeout at $4.705 after an 18.8-cent drop.

It’s questionable whether Northeast citygates can avoid retreating in light of constraints on major pipelines into the region due to high linepack and little storage injection flexibility, a marketer said. In addition to new restrictions being implemented Tuesday by Tennessee and Transco (see Transportation Notes), Texas Eastern and Algonquin were maintaining bans on scheduling due-pipeline makeup gas, he observed. The marketer also said regional weather disparities and transportation basis anomalies have created the unusual situation of Aeco (Western Canada) trading at near-parity with Dracut (Northeast) recently. Friday’s Aeco average of C$4.74 compared with US$4.16 at Dracut. Trading at Niagara has been complicated recently because of the situation, he said.

Meanwhile, a Calgary-based producer said it was “still pretty cold” there — around 12 degrees F. Monday afternoon. Commenting on how cold much of the West has been recently compared to a mild East, he said it seemed like the weather situations were reversed back around the beginning of the year, adding, “I guess it’s payback time now.”

The Southern California border recorded the day’s biggest gain of just under half a dollar primarily due to SoCalGas lifting a high-linepack OFO Sunday.

Traders paid scant attention to a weak non-tropical low moving west-northwest through the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, largely because little if any development of the system was anticipated, according to The Weather Channel. The low could bring some showers and gusty winds (but “nothing dramatic”) to the central Gulf Coast Tuesday, TWC said.

Analysts expect the year-on-year storage deficit, which seemed so discouragingly humongous last spring, to change to surplus in Thursday’s EIA report. Thomas Driscoll of Lehman Brothers predicted an injection of 45 Bcf, which if realized would leave inventories at 3,166 Bcf, 21 Bcf higher than last year and 106 Bcf above the five-year average. Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper had a similar forecast, saying his final estimation is for an injection of 42-52 Bcf.

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