Editor’s Note: This column is part of a series by industry veteran Brad Hitch for NGI’s LNG Insight dedicated to addressing the complexities of the global natural gas market.

The last few months have seen the European natural gas market enter a new phase of its post-Ukraine invasion existence.  

The second warm winter in a row has not only enabled Europe to comfortably navigate the heating season without Russian supply, it has moved prices away from the scarcity paradigm of the last few years into a range that is no longer unprecedented.

It is premature to think that a very cold winter in the next two years couldn’t put scarcity back on the agenda, but if it happens, it will be after the remainder of this year’s storage withdrawal and injection cycle. In other words,...