While most of the market continued its weekend downturn Monday based on weak fundamentals, some Midcontinent/Midwest and West points found enough heating load support to hold firm at flat to up about a dime. The losses ranged from a couple of pennies to nearly a quarter, with Northeast and Louisiana points claiming many of the largest declines.

It was no coincidence that the coldest winter weather generally is concentrated in the areas affecting the points where prices hung toughest against the overall softening: Western Canada, the Rockies/Pacific Northwest and the Upper Plains/Upper Midwest. Otherwise conditions in the South and Northeast are considered mild for early February.

Henry Hub was back in the unusual position of winding up the day at a 6-cent premium to the screen, although March futures and the Hub were tracking more closely together during the morning cash trading session.

While some points, primarily in the Rocky Mountains and Southwest basins, are currently flat to slightly higher than first-of-month indexes, most traded anywhere from a nickel to 45 cents below index Monday. Then there are the Northeast citygates, which are solidly at dollar-plus discounts to index, topped by Transco Zone 6-New York City’s deficit of about $3.40 Monday.

Although intra-Alberta numbers fell about a nickel, provincial gas certainly didn’t lack for demand in its own neighborhood and in the Pacific Northwest, a producer said. It was still below freezing around Calgary Monday, and the city had experienced a daily high of minus 16 degrees C. (about plus 4 F.) over the weekend. The load both north and south of the border stimulated prices at Sumas and also at Westcoast Station 2 for a while, he said, but then Station 2 went lower in late deals for whatever reason.

Temperatures are cool but not uncomfortable in the Northeast, and are actually relatively warm to where the region was a little more than a week ago, said a producer who trades the market area. The mid-Atlantic was downright spring-like. The area will see little change for most of this week but might get “a little shot of cold” again this weekend, he said, but it was hard to say whether that would be enough to rally prices.

Basis keeps getting tighter, the producer continued. It wasn’t worthwhile to pay transport costs from the production area to the market area Monday on either Texas Eastern or Columbia Gas, he said. He sees it as a pretty safe to expect falling prices again Tuesday due to the lack weather fundamentals and the screen loss of more than a dime Monday. Also, nearly all points trended downward during the morning trading session, he said, which usually points out the direction of next-day pricing.

Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper made a final estimation of a 160-170 Bcf withdrawal in the storage report for the week ending Feb. 4, adding, “a withdrawal within our range would, in our opinion, confirm an ‘averaging’ of the last two weeks’ reports.”

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.