With Tropical Storm Bill having departed the production area offshore Louisiana following a rather benign pass-through, air conditioning load not rising enough to make a meaningful difference, and the low-demand Independence Day weekend rapidly approaching, mild to moderate softening seemed appropriate Tuesday. The previous day’s overall gains were partially eroded by new numbers that ranged from flat to down a little more than 20 cents.

Sources saw little if any chance for a rally before next week. A warmup from cooler weekend temperatures in the northern market areas was bringing highs back to only the 80s, not the 90s as happened a week earlier, and readings in much of the Southeast are being similarly quelled by heavy rains from Bill, one pointed out. He also noted a screen decline of 9.4 cents Tuesday, expectations of another storage injection report in excess of 100 Bcf and holiday distractions for traders as other price-negative factors.

The minor amounts of production lost to the storm were in the process of being restored Tuesday, and no reports of significant supply constraints were received either Monday or Tuesday. After saying Tuesday morning that only two of four receipt points shut in by Bill were back online, Sonat was able to amend that posting in the afternoon to say all points were operational again (see Transportation Notes).

In its final public advisory on Tropical Depression Bill (downgraded from a tropical storm), the National Hurricane Center said Bill’s center was near Tuscaloosa, AL at 10 a.m. CDT Tuesday and moving to the northeast at nearly 16 mph. It would continue to pose the threat of flooding and possible tornadoes in its trek across the Southeast, NHC said.

A western trader was fairly typical in his assessment that milder temperatures in California helped promote a “pretty quiet” market. “It’s hard to interest anybody in trading; they’re more interested in holiday plans,” he said. Both Nymex and cash trading were lackluster, he added. The trader counted himself among those seeing “no chance” of a price rebound this week, but said warmer weather next week should bring higher quotes.

A Gulf Coast marketer also don’t see any chance of price rally until after the holiday, citing “not enough weather.” However, he believes that this week’s swing prices, which have already dropped below first-of-month indexes in many cases, will represent the cash market’s summer nadir. “I think we’re about as low as prices are going to get this summer, and there probably will be a flat to moderately higher aftermarket” starting next week.

In the view of a Northeast utility buyer, big July index drops and subsequently softer aftermarket numbers are definitely justified. “There’s just not enough hot summer weather for them to be as high as they were. We don’t even have that much humidity in the Northeast.” Barring another storm, he looks for the market to stay quiet “until at least next week.”

“Hurricanes, shmurricanes,” said a Midwestern trader derisively. “Turns out there is nothing brewing in the Gulf. Plus there should be a fairly strong storage report coming out Wednesday. It’s no wonder prices dropped.”

A utility buyer said one would think everyone in Florida was buying lots of gas because Florida Gas Transmission finally issued an Overage Alert Day notice Tuesday (see Transportation Notes) for the first time in weeks after a few false alarms, but she had no quotes at all to report. And a marketer quoting a couple of Gulfstream-Mobile Bay purchases lately is getting cheaper prices for delivering into Florida than FGT.

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