Pushed by a new spread of cold weather that limited highs above 70 to the Southeast and promised to engulf much of that region the following day, the market recorded strong upticks across the board Wednesday. Tuesday’s screen gain of nearly 16 cents also lent some delayed support to cash prices.

The Northeast, where both high winds and lake-effect snows of as much as 4-6 inches in some parts were predicted for Thursday, led the price parade upward with increases that surpassed half a dollar at some points. Much of the Midwest was also expected to get snow and/or near-freezing conditions. Advances there and in other regions ranged between a dime and 30 cents, with the smaller ones in the teens tending to cluster in the West.

But as one trader observed, the market is in a volatile period currently with alternating waves of cold and relative warmth dominating key market areas since last week. Wednesday’s Nymex loss of 13 cents as a possible harbinger of a cash reversal downward Thursday was accentuated by cash numbers falling a little near deadline as the screen started to sink from early levels near flat, he said. However, there was “pretty good buying early on,” the trader added.

The chances of softer prices are enhanced a bit by expectations about the Thursday morning that were centered around a 20 Bcf injection. That seems like a small build, but it would be quite bearish considering that the comparable period last year saw a withdrawal of 48 Bcf.

The temperature pattern is kind of checkered right now, a Northeast marketer said. It’s getting colder now but due to warm a bit again around Friday, only to be followed by another cold shot due before moderation sets in for a longer period next week, he went on. This pattern should make for “interesting trading for the weekend” because of the need for almost-daily load adjustments, he said. However, he concluded, “there’s no doubt that prices look pretty solidly soft for next week.”

The National Weather Service reinforced that last comment as its six- to 10-day forecast got even more bearish for gas prices Wednesday than before. For the Nov. 18-22 time frame, NWS predicts above normal temperatures for nearly all of the U.S. The only exceptions are normal outlooks for southern portions of the Northeast and a coastal strip of the Mid-Atlantic, the lower half of Florida, and the West Coast states along with a border strip encompassing the northern tip of Idaho and most of Montana. As on the day before (see Daily GPI, Nov. 12), it did not see any below normal readings for the Lower 48 states.

One lower South utility buyer said that with daily highs still reaching the low to mid 80s, the company’s service area still had some air conditioning load going, “but it’s still not much for selling more gas.” Another utility buyer in the region was thinking along similar lines, saying, “We haven’t traded actively for several weeks now, and it probably will stay that way until we get some genuine cold weather.”

Florida Gas Transmission Zone 1 activity was noticeably lacking Wednesday as expected (see Daily GPI, Nov. 12) since maintenance locking most of the zone’s receipt points out of the Florida market area was to begin Thursday and run through Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center took the unusual step of issuing a special state Wednesday afternoon about a reconnaissance aircraft’s investigation of a “broad area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea.” The low still did not have a well defined center of circulation, NHC said. However, the system “is slowly becoming better organized, and a tropical cyclone still could develop during the next day or two as the system moves slowly northeastward.” Some gas trader concerns may have been soothed by the direction, which would take the low back toward the open Atlantic.

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