Substantially cold weather has largely receded into Canada and the northern tier of American states, but the cash market found enough of it still around to stage moderate rebounds Monday at a majority of points. The screen’s 3.5-cent gain on the preceding Friday and the return of industrial load from its usual weekend hiatus provided small amounts of ancillary support.

Most of Monday’s upticks were small at less than a dime, although they ranged as high as a little more than 15 cents at Northeast citygates. A fair amount of flat points were in the market mix, along with a few declines of up to about 7 cents. Two of the day’s largest losses were recorded at Florida Gas Transmission’s Zone 1 and Zone 3 pools after the pipeline canceled an Overage Alert Day notice Sunday (see Transportation Notes).

Although temperatures close to their late-March norms will pervade the U.S. weather picture Tuesday, there still is likely to be snowfall in mountainous sections of the West and some parts of the Midwest and Midcontinent, along with the possibility of flurries in northern New England, according to The Weather Channel. And although predictions last week called for a general moderation of temperatures this week, a revised forecast is now calling for snow to return to the New York City area at midweek instead of the mercury levels on either side of 60 degrees that previously had been anticipated (see futures story).

Opinion was divided on Tuesday’s price direction, but leaned slightly to the upside. A Calgary-based producer commented, “I just don’t know any more” about making price calls, but added that he was thinking quotes will be “a little bit higher.” He noted that for a change the price spread from Alberta’s Aeco C Hub to Malin was covering the cost of transport, “but that might be only a one-day glitch.”

A Northeast marketer also counted himself as mildly bullish. Temperatures in the region are staying cool, but “merely seasonal,” he said. However, no major increases in thermometer levels are anticipated for the next seven to 10 days, the marketer went on, and for that reason he expects prices to remain firm for a while, with no big ups or downs but mostly a little higher each day. An exception could be Thursday’s trading for the long Good Friday/Easter holiday weekend, when chances of softer quotes will be heightened, he said.

Taking the contrarian view was a Gulf Coast marketer, who noted that cash numbers came off a little near the end amid “pretty slow trading” throughout the morning session. He saw the late dip as an indicator of mildly softer quotes Tuesday. He also saw some evidence of less weather-based load, saying some of the people who were buying gas last week in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic “are not buying this week, at least so far.”

One source suggested that despite the usual tendency of traders to finish up early leading into a three-day weekend, he was sure there will be some April bidweek deals getting done Thursday, although others might prefer to wait until after the holiday when fresher weather forecasts and futures guidance will be available.

Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper made a final estimation of an 86-96 Bcf storage withdrawal to be announced for the week ending March 18.

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.