Monday’s 46.9-cent spike by May futures had its expected impact on the cash market Tuesday; prices continued to rise at nearly all points. A slow warming trend in the Northeast and cooling weather in the central South and Southwest were draining heating and cooling load, respectively, by moderate amounts. But lows in the 20s and 30s in the Rockies, Upper Plains and parts of the Midwest provided a fair amount of residual heating demand.

One source suggested that prices also were deriving support from buyers who have begun the storage injection season on schedule.

Flat quotes at two New England delivery points — Tennessee Zone 6 and Dracut — kept the market from achieving a clean sweep of gains. Otherwise, increases ranged from about a dime to a little more than 40 cents. The Rockies tended to see most of the largest advances.

Besides cool to cold weather in much of the West, supplies were experiencing a bit of tightness. Low linepack levels led PG&E to issue a customer-specific OFO for Wednesday; the citygate rose a little more than a quarter. And El Paso said drafting of its system and underperformance at some receipt points led it to set the probability of declaring a Strained Operating Condition or Critical Operating Condition to high. Prices were up 30-35 cents in the pipeline’s Permian Basin and two San Juan Basin pools.

High temperatures in the 80s were due to continue Wednesday in the Louisiana-Texas area, but cooler conditions are setting in to either side in the central and eastern South and the desert Southwest. Atlanta and Memphis, TN, are expected to barely reach 70 degrees, while Phoenix, where mid 80s highs had reigned through Tuesday, will be dropping to the mid 70s.

A futures decline of 9.4 cents Tuesday will give moderately negative guidance to physical gas prices Wednesday.

It’s cooler than normal in California for this time of year, said a western trader, who noted that San Francisco and Sacramento were recording overnight lows in the mid 40s. “I’m betting on another up day” for prices Wednesday, he said — at least in the West. Other regions may soften due to moderating weather and Tuesday’s screen drop, he added.

A Midcontinent producer agreed that prices are likely to fall a bit at some eastern points. Cash prices were moving lower near the end of trading Tuesday, which is usually an indicator of next-day softness, he said.

“It will be remembered as the winter that would not go away,” SunTrust Robinson Humphrey/the Gerdes Group noted in a Tuesday commentary. “Traders started today with a lot of blue to stare at on their weather screens. Not the pale blue variety that yields perhaps a 10-cent gain in prices, but the 50-cent deep blue that means we will work storage into an even deeper hole as cold weather is now expected to descend over the core heating demand locations of the eastern half of the country later this week and into next.”

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates is projecting a storage pull of 12 Bcf to be reported for the week ending April 4, which Smith said was down from his original estimate of 22 Bcf.

Citigroup’s Tim Evans also expects one more net withdrawal before the refill process begins in earnest. Evans projected a 15 Bcf draw for the week ending April 4 preceding injections of 20 Bcf and 30 Bcf for the weeks ending April 11 and April 18, respectively.

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