This winter is expected to be close to normal on a national basis, with the eastern United States expected to be colder than the West, according to Salomon Smith Barney’s (SSB) “2002-2003 Winter Outlook,” released Friday. The outlook was authored by the investment group’s noted meteorologists, Jon Davis and Mark Russo.

This winter there should be less sun spot activity and there has been wetter weather in the northern U.S and Canada this fall, two factors that indicate last winter’s exceptional warmth will not repeat. A third indication is that there has been a much more extensive snow cover accumulated in the north through September.

“We expect the continental U.S. to experience a winter that features more normal temperatures on a national basis, compared to the extremely warm conditions of a year ago,” the SSB report said. “As for precipitation, we expect a much wetter winter than a year ago, which was very dry on a national basis.”

The variable going into the winter is the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean, which generates the so-called El Nino and La Nina events. While it is clear this is a year for El Nino, it is not clear how intense it will be, but SSB takes a stab at it. “Currently, as of early October, SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are at a critical level. The specific value is just slightly more than 1.0 degree C above normal,” the result of continued warming over the last 4-5 months. “At more than 1.0 degree C above normal there tends to be an increasingly strong bias of warm winters. Once SST levels exceed 2.0 degrees C above normal, the odds turn very strongly in favor of there being an unusually warm winter.”

If the SSTs stay between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees C higher than normal, there is more of a chance for a normal or colder-than-normal winter nationally. “We believe that SSTs are going to be near or only slightly exceed 1.0 degree C above normal this winter,” the SSB report states. “In other words we do not see major additional warming of SSTs from this point forward.”

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