Gazprom PJSC was the largest contributor to Russia’s budget in 2022 despite a sharp drop in natural gas export volumes, but 2023 could prove more difficult as global prices have declined and the country searches for new customers to replace those lost in Europe.

Although Russia’s LNG exports remained strong last year and are expected to rise in 2023, gas pipeline flows to Europe have reached historic lows, dropping to around 50 million cubic meters per day (1.7 Bcf/d) in January, according to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas.

“The abrupt disappearance of the European gas export market and an overhang of spare productive capacity represents a significant problem for Gazprom and for the Kremlin because of a threat to gas export revenues and the...