Despite some protestations about “storm hype,” it could not be denied that cash numbers saw big increases across the board Tuesday based on screen support from the day before and the possibility that an upper-atmosphere low-pressure system in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) could begin to threaten offshore production before the weekend.

The Rockies, which had seen prices drop as low as a nickel at two points as recently as last Thursday, continued an amazing recovery from such depths. Only Kern River and Questar recorded triple-digit advances, but other points in the region were seeing some of the largest upticks among an overall market that ranged from a little less than 30 cents to about $1.25 higher.

The cash market is expected to continue its ascent Wednesday after November futures, which had risen 18 cents Monday, slightly more than doubled its prior-day support for physical gas by adding another 37.7 cents Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms continued to flare underneath the GOM low, The Weather Channel (TWC) said, but because no well defined surface low had developed, there appeared to be no imminent threat of a tropical or subtropical cyclone forming. “Still, such an eventuality remains in the cards, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to scout the area tomorrow [Wednesday],” the forecasting service said. A Hurricane Hunter mission Tuesday was canceled, it added.

AccuWeather.com seemed a bit more bullish on the system’s prospects, saying it will drift west over the next several days into an “area of the Gulf that will allow for development of a subtropical or tropical storm. By Thursday night, the low will be steered northwest and then north toward the Gulf Coast.”

One source said the continuing recent strength of Rockies prices is rather puzzling in light of area storage facilities being nearly full and one (Jackson Prairie) being down through Friday. However, he presumed that recent shut-ins of Rockies production — both announced and unannounced — may be having a cumulative effect, and said overnight lows in the 40s in the Rockies and Pacific Northwest along with mountain-area snowfalls likely had developed some heating load.

Yes, a Houston-based producer acknowledged, some buyers were hollering “storm hype” about Tuesday’s run-up in cash prices. But the projected path of the system could be damaging to offshore oil and gas interests if it strengthens, he said, although for right now it’s still just a low-pressure area with rain and not much else. His company’s traders were hearing a little buzz Tuesday “but nothing definitive” about offshore evacuations or shut-ins.

“As long as we march up on the Nymex,” cash should keep rising, the producer continued. It’s fairly warm in the central U.S. south of the Midwest, he said, and he thinks that was bolstering some power generation load, “but nothing to get excited about.” After all, when the calendar gets into October, above normal temperatures essentially mean “comfortable” for the northern market areas.

The producer said a Chicago-area utility buyer told him he was surprised about having to get out into the spot market Tuesday since local temperatures weren’t expected to get above the low 70s Wednesday. “He wasn’t even sure why” the utility needed more gas, but the company’s load seemed to be rising, the producer added.

A Midcontinent producer confessed to being mystified about why regional prices made such large gains Tuesday in the face of light market-area cooling load. He wondered if more Midwest/Midcontinent nuclear plants than usual were down for maintenance currently. He also speculated that a lot of pipeline drafting had occurred in September, so maybe shippers are replacing that gas now, although he admitted that could only be a partial explanation for the price bullishness.

On Monday cash quotes had fallen off at the end of trading, he said, but Tuesday they kept going up all the way. “Everybody is baffled,” he said; the potential for offshore outages shouldn’t affect Midcontinent prices that much, but it seems like the whole market often reacts to GOM happenings.

In Tuesday’s six- to 10-day forecast for the Oct. 8-12 workweek, the National Weather Service (NWS) predicted above-normal temperatures everywhere (except in the Florida peninsula and the southern end of Texas) east of a line running northward through central New Mexico and Colorado before curving to the northeast through the western end of Nebraska, central South Dakota and the northwestern corner of Minnesota. The greatest deviations above normal conditions will be in the Northeast, eastern Midwest and northern edge of the South, NWS said. It expects below-normal readings in the Pacific Northwest as far east as eastern Montana, in all of Nevada and in all but the southern end of California.

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