For a regional market that couldn’t seem to buy a price break all week, the Rockies came roaring back Friday with triple-digit spikes. That was in sharp contrast to falling prices at virtually all other points as above-normal temperatures were expected to be in place by the end of the weekend in nearly all of the U.S. except its northwest corner. The weekend retreat of industrial load was a minor bearish factor.

As expected, the previous day’s 8.9-cent rebound by December after four straight sessions of weakness had little impact on most of the cash market, which recorded losses ranging from about a nickel to nearly 90 cents. Westcoast Station 2 chipped in an increase of about C4 cents to go with huge Rockies upticks that ran as high as nearly $3.90.

The odds seemed somewhat stacked against such a major rebound in the Rockies, which had seen quotes as low as a penny and five points averaging less than half a dollar as recently as Thursday. Temperatures in the area are fairly moderate for November, CIG had declared a Strained Operating Condition (SOC) the day before due to essentially full storage, El Paso warned shippers that it might have to issue its own SOC, and both of California’s big LDCs had high-linepack OFOs in place Saturday (see Transportation Notes).

Bullish influences in the Rockies included the midweek restoration of full capacity on Cheyenne Plains following a lengthy restriction and the fact that a Declared Deficiency Period at Northwest’s Cisco Compressor Stations was for Friday only and would not be in effect over the weekend.

A Calgary-based producer speculated that maybe the Rockies were “due” for a spike Friday after being down the rest of the week. One market can’t keep rolling snake-eyes forever, can it? he asked rhetorically.

Another source said Public Service Co. of Colorado (PSCO) is sometimes known to make large purchases on any given day and may have been prompted to do so Friday by the extreme weakness of Rockies prices earlier in the week. Although CIG has virtually no storage space left, PSCO parent company Xcel Energy owns and operates three storage fields in Colorado.

Monday’s cash market will have prior-day futures support again as the December contract followed up Thursday’s rally with the addition of another 18.4 cents Friday. That’s unlikely to make a difference, though, with cash gas looking at the prospect of about two weeks of weak heating load ahead and with an all-time high level of storage inventory in the ground.

The Southern California border saw one of Friday’s biggest losses after SoCalGas issued its OFO. But the PG&E citygate’s OFO response was considerably more muted as the citygate fell a little less than 33 cents.

Dawn fell about 30 cents Friday, showing no ill effects from Vector Pipeline’s force majeure declaration there Thursday. Although Vector had said it would not make any Dawn deliveries Friday, it reported actually being able to move up to 300,000 Dth/d and said no restrictions would be in place Saturday (see Transportation Notes).

The Pacific Northwest likely has the best chance of breaking out of the expected softness mold Monday as The Weather Channel said a “strong cold front” will be arriving from the Pacific Ocean starting Monday.

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