The Rockies market rebounded Tuesday from Monday’s depths, with prices reported back in the $1.60s at Opal and a dime less on CIG, which had been in the $1.20s on Monday. However, few explanations were given. Weather there is still warmer than normal and is expected the stay that way in the short term.

SoCal Border prices, however, were off more than a nickel, along with most of the market. Cash is still very weak compared to the prompt month futures contract, which settled at $2.798, up more than 6 cents. Gulf Coast prices at many locations dropped five cents or so into the low $2.30s with the Henry Hub and Transco Station 65 quoted near $2.40.

“My LDC customers have finally filled up their storage, and the pipelines are forcing them to stop injecting,” said one Gulf Coast region marketer. “The pipes are looking packed full. I’m praying some colder weather will bring the market back up, but I’m not counting on it.” He said he was expecting a 10-15 Bcf injection in the AGA storage report this week. Expectations from other sources ranged from a 5 Bcf withdrawal to as much as a 20 Bcf injection.

Storage appears to by chuck full in Chicago where five pipelines are dumping gas that seems to have no home. Chicago prices tumbled 5 cents to the mid $2.30s, while Midcontinent deals were down 5-10 cents from Monday averages.

One notable situation that has developed in the Midwestern marketplace is the widening of the Chicago-Dawn spread. Temperatures are mild in the windy city with daytime highs in the low 60s and nighttime lows in the high 30s. With all the gas entering the Midwest hub and storage full, Chicago prices have lagged Dawn significantly. The spread has widened to about 30 cents, covering transportation costs on the Vector Pipeline for the first time in its short history, according to several observers. “That’s the first time I’ve seen it trading that high relative to the tolls on Vector,” said one.

“It’s trading over the full toll, 25 cents plus fuel,” said one broker. “It might have happened once or twice before, but on average it has been 10-15 cents. It’s not cold in Chicago and there’s a lot of gas available,” he said. “Also I think Dawn is unusually strong at $2.63.” He quoted Chicago at $2.36 yesterday.

With a warm rain across the West and plenty of gas in the pipe, many sources were scratching their heads over the price rebound in the Rockies. “Public Service Company of Colorado backed off their threat of an operational flow order and that gave some people some room to further pack the pipe in anticipation of colder weather coming in this weekend. That’s the only thing I can figure,” said one source.

“Questar changed its mind on storage,” said another. “It initially had said earlier this month that you had to get all your interruptible storage out by Nov. 9, but now it’s saying operationally it’s in good shape and has 1 Bcf of IT. I think people were buying some gas in anticipation of that IT being available. It’s got to get colder in Denver sometime soon. It’s been 60 degrees the past few days with lows in the 30s, much above normal. Yesterday (Monday) I traded balance-of-the-month Rockies gas at 84 cents off the Henry Hub, but I traded it about 69 cents off the hub about 15 minutes ago,” he said at about 11 a.m. CST.

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