The market experienced an expected rebound Monday from major weekend softness, but not counting substantial western increases, the rally in the East was “rather anemic” in comparison with Friday’s declines, one source said. The anticipated hotter weather either failed to materialize or was considerably less than expected.

What had been expected to be a generally bullish week, going by six- to 10-day weather forecasts (see Daily GPI, July 8), may be cut short. The screen, after exhibiting a modicum of firmness Monday morning, caved in later to shed a total of 28.4 cents on the day. That’s a pretty good indication that cash numbers also will be going down Tuesday, a Houston-based marketer said.

Only a few scattered eastern points outside the Midcontinent, where power generators were revving their engines to keep up with cooling demand, managed to achieve gains of a dime or more. It was quite a different story in the West, though. Western points recorded double-digit gains across the board, led by the Southern California border’s uptick of half a dollar.

Not only had high-linepack OFOs by both of California’s giant LDCs ceased to be a price depressant, but high temperatures of 100-degrees-plus are infesting much larger areas of the desert Southwest than last week, and the overall region (except for coastal California) is seeing daily highs in the 80s or greater. Kern River, which had returned to systemwide high linepack conditions last week, reported high linepack Monday only in the farthest downstream of its four segments.

It hasn’t gotten all that hot in the Northeast, despite the forecasts for above normal temperatures this week, said a utility buyer in the region reporting an upper 70s high Monday and a forecast for getting up only into the low to mid 80s Tuesday. “Friday people were calling us asking for gas,” possibly as bargain hunters, she said. But after covering system supply needs Monday, “we had to call customers to make sales,” which were mostly at Transco Zone 6 non-NYC, she added.

“The heat we had expected isn’t there after all,” said a marketer. Actually, he clarified, it was a little above normal in the Midwest with most sections close to 90 degrees Monday, but temperatures were already due to start cooling off again Tuesday. Chicago-area demand is remaining kind of weak, he said, quoting a fairly tight citygate range from the mid $5.80s to the low $5.90s. Prices ran up a little near the end while Nymex was still moving a bit higher, he said, noting that natural gas futures didn’t begin their plunge until after the cash market had closed.

“We’re not quite sure what to do with ourselves without the pressure of an Overage Alert Day,” a Florida utility buyer jested about Florida Gas Transmission’s lifting of an OFO-like notice that has been in effect most of the time during the last couple of months. It hasn’t really gotten any cooler in the Sunshine State “that I can tell; it still feels hot to me,” she said. Maybe with the market getting so much softer late last week, producers are starting to leave more gas in the pipeline, the buyer suggested. She was “quite pleased” to see the big screen drop, but said some cash traders were scratching their heads over why.

Good luck trying to catch Calgary traders in their offices during the afternoon this week. Nearly all are finishing daily business by lunchtime and devoting the afternoons and evenings to Stampede rodeo festivities.

Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll said he expects a storage injection of 90 Bcf to be reported for the week ended July 9.

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