With a modicum of colder weather coming back into the market picture, prices responded with mostly moderate increases at nearly all points Tuesday. The few instances of flat to lower numbers were primarily associated with the warm Florida market, which as recently as late last week had experience near-freezing temperatures in the northern half of the state.

Most of the gains were less than a dime, although they extended as high as 15 cents or so.

Whether the growth in heating load and Tuesday’s screen advance of a little more than 8 cents would be able to sustain further cash upticks Wednesday was a tough call, according to one source.

Following fairly moderate weekends and beginnings of this week, the Northeast and Midwest will be returning to conditions more suited to mid-February Wednesday, with snowfall possible in some sections. A cold front also will be moving into the formerly spring-like South, but it was expected to do little more than remind residents that winter actually isn’t over yet instead of creating significant heating load. Highs in the West will be at or near seasonal norms, The Weather Channel said.

A utility buyer, noting that it was pretty mild Tuesday in the Lower Midwest, said temperatures would get colder Wednesday, “but not a whole lot.” He expected his system heating load to increase less than 10%, which could easily be handled out of storage, so the company didn’t buy any spot gas Tuesday.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said freezing temperatures were due in her area Wednesday, “and maybe some snow tonight.” However, the forecast indicated that a blast of winter next week will be even colder, she said. She was glad the screen was moving again after a period of near-stagnation, but didn’t care for Tuesday’s direction.

A producer who trades in the Western Canada and Pacific Northwest markets said deals were slow to get going Tuesday, “then came on like gangbusters.” There’s not much heating or power generation demand currently in the Pacific Northwest, he observed, but Sumas basis to the Henry Hub had gotten stronger; going from 60 cents back of the Hub late last week to about 50 cents back this week.

During the Feb. 21-25 period, the National Weather Service expects below normal temperatures almost everywhere west of a line running from South Texas through Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa and central Wisconsin. Not included in that region are Oregon, the northern thirds of California and Nevada and most of Washington, where normal conditions were predicted, along with a coastal slice of Washington in which above normal readings are likely. New England and northern New York are also forecast to be below normal. NWS looks for above normal temperatures in Alabama and most of Mississippi, along with eastern Tennessee and the northwest quadrant of Georgia.

Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll predicted that a storage withdrawal of 110 Bcf will be reported for the week ending Feb. 11, adding that if he is correct, “the storage overhang will increase to 301 Bcf versus the five-year average. We will need sustained colder than normal weather — or perhaps lower prices — to pull storage down to the five-year seasonal average level of just above 1.0 Tcf” by April 1.

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