Regional variations in upward price trends tended to even out a bit Tuesday. With scattered exceptions, nearly all points were united in seeing gains ranging from a little less than 15 cents to about 35 cents; however, the lion’s share of increases were clustered around the 20-25 cents range. The primary skewing came in most of the smaller gains being recorded in the West.

Tuesday’s firmness had been anticipated based on the previous day’s strength in the energy futures complex, which included a 35.2-cent spike by the natural gas screen; a continuation of newfound air conditioning load across the southern half of the U.S.; a significant loss of offshore production; and several unexpected nuclear plant outages or cutbacks in recent days.

But although the cash market was believed able to squeeze at least one more day of rising quotes Wednesday out of generally supportive influences, it was not a foregone conclusion. June gas futures saw only a marginal drop of 2.1 cents on their penultimate day of trading prior to Wednesday’s expiration, but Nymex’s oil product contracts experienced greater losses as government reports Wednesday are expected to reflect substantial inventory increases during last week. News reports that a restart of the 285,000 bbl/d Olympic oil products pipeline in the Pacific Northwest, closed Sunday by a fire, was anticipated Tuesday evening contributed to the bearishness in oil.

Also, a stormy front that had already eroded most cooling load in the Midwest and Northeast will begin to encroach on heat in the South, bringing cooling rains to the northern parts of that region starting Wednesday, according to The Weather Channel.

Contrary to the price-negative developments, a suspension of 170 MMcf/d in Gulf of Mexico supplies is likely to last at least two more weeks. Operator Shell Oil estimated Tuesday that it would take two to three weeks to restore flows from the Mars platform; its production was suspended last Saturday following a valve shutdown on the Mars pipeline and discovery of a small sheen of oil at the platform.

The National Weather Service’s outlook for next week is considerably less bullish for gas prices than the one calling for a lot of Southern heat this week. In Tuesday’s forecast for the May 31-June 4 period, NWS expects above normal temperatures in the Atlantic coastal states from Virginia through Florida and including a southeastern chunk of Alabama. It also predicted above normal readings west and south of a line along the eastern borders of Arizona and Utah and curving west through central Idaho and Oregon. Below normal temperatures were forecast for the Northeast, Midwest, Upper Plains and northern sections of the Midcontinent.

A marketer reported baseloading very little June gas for his company’s customers, saying it would take its chances with the aftermarket. Such a strategy is something of a crapshoot, he admitted; the results could be getting burned badly, making out well on lower prices, or a neutral washout.

Analyst Thomas Driscoll of Lehman Brothers expect a storage injection of 95 Bcf to be reported Thursday for the week ended May 21. Such a volume would be identical to the year-earlier build. “If our storage estimate is correct, the storage surplus versus a year ago would remain unchanged at 398 Bcf and the storage variance versus five-year averages would shift from a 15 Bcf deficit to a 4 Bcf surplus,” Driscoll added.

Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper made a final estimation of a build “between 84 and 94 Bcf” for the storage report.

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