For a third straight trading day Monday, mild firmness was the dominant cash market trait. A few scattered points fell by a couple of pennies, but the rest saw prices ranging from flat to nearly a dime higher in most cases. Overall increases remained small, however, as a majority of upticks were less than a nickel.

The conspicuous outliers in the general market were New England citygate gains of about a dime and 15 cents respectively via Tennessee and Algonquin. Overnight lows could get to minus 20 degrees in the northern New England valleys, according to The Weather Channel.

Sources continued to cite covering of early-month short supply positions and the presence of enough cold weather in several geographically spread market areas as reasons for continued firmness. But a formerly lethargic screen finally started throwing a bit of weight around in cash trading, a couple said. For a while it seemed the March futures contract would meander on either side of flat again without pointing out any new direction. After mid-morning and while cash was still trading, though, the screen began forging steadily higher toward an eventual near-dime advance and took late physical deals with it, primarily in eastern markets.

A Northeastern utility buyer went along for the ride, making his early Texas Eastern M-3 deals in the low $2.50s, but profiting from a late sale about a dime higher. He credited the late run-up entirely to futures. It was due to be mild today in his service territory, he said, but then temperatures would get colder again Wednesday and Thursday. He called regional weather “pretty much average for this time of year.”

In addition to the natural gas contract rise, March futures in heating oil and crude oil also were up sharply due to continuing Middle East violence and indications that additions to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be taking a sizeable amount off the crude market.

A Midcontinent marketer said that because much of the screen advance came during late cash activity and afterward, he expects the supportive effect to carry over through today.

Iroquois Zone 2 has traded at essential parity with premium point Transco Zone 6-NYC lately and continued to do so Monday around $2.60. The Iroquois strength is directly related to high border numbers at Waddington (where TransCanada delivers into Iroquois), which one Northeaster source quoted in the low to mid $2.40s Monday.

Algonquin said late Monday afternoon it was experiencing an unscheduled compressor outage, and that for today’s gas day it would restrict all Authorized Overrun and Interruptible service and about 38% of Secondary Firm nominations scheduled as forward-hauls through the Cromwell (CT) Compressor Station. No due-shipper makeup gas is available, and only incremental Primary No-notice service nominations will be accepted, the pipeline said.

The fact that MOPS deliveries into Florida Gas Transmission’s Zone 1 pool remained at zero until further notice (see Transportation Notes) may have boosted FGT numbers in downstream pools. Zone 1 was nearly flat Monday, but Zones 2 and 3 recorded increases of 3 and 9 cents respectively.

When’s that overwhelming mass of gas in storage going to make its presence felt in the swing market? That’s been a major discussion topic among traders since before the year began, and an Eastern LDC buyer said Monday that much of what’s currently stashed away is likely to still be there next winter. “Just about everybody I know has no plans to withdraw any storage that doesn’t have to be cycled in and out annually,” he said.

UBS Warburg launched its version of a reincarnated EnronOnline Monday, and a clear majority of sources contacted in a random sampling of opinion said they planned to use the service with its impeccable credit rating, and would not hold the Enron connection against it (see related story). Knowing that the UBS corporate parent’s primary business is as a Swiss banker, a marketer joked: “Is it true they will try to collateralize some deals with chocolate, cuckoo clocks and wristwatches?”

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