Given a solid launch by the previous day’s futures spike and ice storms along the northern half of the East Coast, prices recorded double-digit gains at nearly all points Wednesday. With the exception of a few flat to moderately lower Northeast citygates, increases tended to range from about a dime to 30 cents, with most of them in the 20s.

A new screen uptick of a little more than 7 cents is likely to keep the cash bullishness in effect Thursday, one source said, although he doesn’t expect as much strength as on Wednesday. He noted that the crude oil and heating oil futures contracts wound up with small net losses after having been up during the morning. But the gas market outlook could hinge on what storage withdrawal volume the Energy Information Administration reports Thursday morning, the source went on. Anything more than 150 Bcf likely would cause a further price surge, while less than 120 Bcf is expected to begin a slide, he said.

Several traders were somewhat annoyed by the non-performance of last week’s medium-range forecasts. The National Weather Service had predicted that virtually the entire U.S. north of a sliver along its southern edge would be experiencing above normal temperatures by Wednesday. “These East Coast ice storms don’t sound much like above normal temperatures to me,” snorted a marketer.

A Northeast utility buyer said the latest six- to 10-day forecast is still indicating above normal for the East, “but it might be wrong like last week’s was.” People in the area are still looking forward to some milder conditions, she said, but after an uneventful morning the ice storm was creeping along from the Mid-Atlantic into New England that afternoon, boding a hazardous drive home. The buyer had some excess gas to sell but couldn’t get any deals done because of competition from other sellers.

“We’re kind of horrified to see the heights this market is reaching” for no apparent good reasons, a marketer commented. “I think buyers are starting to get sticker shock.”

A Southern utility buyer was thinking along similar lines, saying he believed the futures and cash run-ups were something of an “overreaction” to recent storage developments, particularly the rapid growth of a year-on-year deficit following a long period of surplus. People don’t seem to be as confident as before that inventories will be sufficient for a normal to cold winter, he added.

A Calgary-based trader noted that it was still warmer than usual in Alberta, which played a part in provincial prices not following the screen as religiously as usual. Intra-Alberta numbers were up about a dime to the low to mid C$5.50s Wednesday, he said. A Rockies marketer also reported that “a little front is coming through that will cool things off a bit, but our temps are still milder than normal.”

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