In another trading day characterized as quiet by sources, cash numbers were about flat to nearly 30 cents higher Monday. However, only CIG achieved the approximate 30-cent increase; other gains were capped at around a dime, and a majority of points were up by about a nickel or less.

Traders cited the post-weekend return of industrial load and cold fronts due to move Tuesday into the Northeast, Midwest and western reaches of the South as chiefly responsible for Monday’s upticks. However, all three fronts are expected to be on the mild side and bring a lot of sometimes-stormy rain, which is probably what kept most price gains small.

The cash market got only a modicum of support from the natural gas screen, which was barely higher during the morning and registered most of its eventual dime-plus increase after cash business had been completed. But the crude oil and heating oil futures contracts were making impressive rebounds after coalition forces in Iraq began encountering setbacks Sunday in their previously rapid advance. Also, reports of major cutbacks in Nigerian production due to civil unrest gave an extra boost to the oil numbers.

No injuries were reported following a Sunday night rupture of CIG in Weld County, CO (see related story). Traders bid CIG up on initial news of the rupture but there was only a limited impact on the market, a Rockies trader told NGI. “Nobody was real excited about it after they found no disruption of service would happen,” he said. The Denver area was getting another 3-4 inches of snow Monday, “but it’s not sticking” and won’t cause nearly the problems that last week’s blizzard did, the trader added.

A western source speculated that increases in California power generation load likely were responsible for San Juan Basin recording Monday’s rare advance of more than a dime, noting that the state’s SP-15 and NP-15 electricity trading points were the only ones posting increases in an otherwise softer national power market.

With the swing market in low-volatility mode, traders began to look ahead to April but said little activity is occurring at this point. One reported a couple of Opal deals done on either side of $3.50.

With the April contract little more than half of March’s second-highest settlement in history, it’s a safe assumption that monthly indexes will be falling hugely, a marketer said. But he added that “Chicago appears to be trading fairly strong for next month.” He was hearing basis of plus 9-10 cents for the citygate, which would have equated to mid $3.50s fixed prices based on Monday’s Nymex close. April gas futures expire Thursday.

In its forecast for this weekend through early next week, the National Weather Service predicts below normal temperatures for the eastern half of the U.S. The row of states from Texas northward through the Dakotas and then westward from North Dakota through Washingston should be normal, NWS said, while above normal readings will prevail in the rest of the West.

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