Once again taking their cue more from prior-day screen movement than from waning weather support, cash prices reversed direction Thursday for the third time in as many days by recording increases at virtually all points.

The Midcontinent tended to see most of the smallest increases of less than a dime in an overall range from about a nickel to 20 cents or so. Western markets recorded most of the larger gains, although Texas points also were quite strong as air conditioning load shows signs of growing.

Even with Thursday’s gains, a solid majority of points were trading at least several cents below first-of-month indexes. Most of the deficits to index were in double digits and ran as large as half a dollar at the PG&E citygate. Nearly all of the half-dozen points that were essentially flat to index were in South Texas and East Texas.

The Energy Information Administration reported a storage build of 39 Bcf for the week ending April 29. The volume was in line with the consensus of a wide-ranging set of prior estimations. Although it wavered between higher and lower as the day went on, the natural gas screen continued to see petroleum-based futures as its prime influence and ended the day up 6.1 cents.

Even with chilly weather at the beginning of this week in northern and western market areas, considerably larger injections are likely in the near future. Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper said that as temperatures continue to moderate next week, “a couple of injections well over 90 Bcf and even above 100 Bcf are projected.”

Other than cold and snowy conditions in some mountainous (and sparsely populated) sections of the West and the potential for power generation load rising along with temperatures in the South, the overall weather outlook will be bearish for gas prices going into the weekend. However, sources agreed that continued strength in futures Thursday should keep cash numbers firm Friday.

With an expected high in the low 70s Friday, “none of the utilities were buying in the Chicago area,” a Houston-based marketer said. However, he suspects that a lot of Midwest traders went into May short on baseload, so they still have to keep covering their loads each day, which probably helped boost prices Thursday. Thanks to the screen staying strong, the marketer expects cash prices to go up “a little bit” Friday, with gains limited by the lack of weather lead and the industrial demand slump that accompanies a weekend.

A Northeast utility buyer said he expected Thursday’s price increases, but was kind of surprised by how strong they were. It had to be Wednesday’s futures advance that drove cash higher Thursday “because the weather is continuing to get nicer here,” he said. “We’re back to normal May temperatures” that are quite comfortable, he added. Not much physical supply gets traded after Nymex begins its daily open-outcry session at 10 a.m. Eastern time, he noted, so the screen has little same-day impact on the cash market other than the last few deals.

The buyer said his company had to make storage withdrawals as recently as Sunday and Monday when the weather was still cold, “but now we’ve returned to our regular injection schedule.” The utility doesn’t have a whole lot of capacity left in its storage accounts, though, he said.

A western trader said he is currently inactive in the daily markets due to having reached his credit limits. “Boy, utilities in the West sure were hoping” for the screen to fall Thursday, he commented. He thinks cash will continue to follow the screen upward Friday even with little weather-related demand of any significance.

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