Once again, strong movement the day before in the energy futures complex failed to elicit a similar response from the cash market. Nearly all points were close to flat Tuesday, and the few up-and-down changes were limited to about a nickel or so in both directions.

The winter storms in the Northeast and Midwest that helped push quotes strongly higher at the beginning of the week apparently aren’t lasting long enough to sustain their bullish influence. The Northeast will stay cold at least through Wednesday, according to The Weather Channel, but will see little new frozen precipitation.

Going by reports from two sources, the outlook is somewhat divided in the Midwest. A utility buyer in the lower portion of the region said his city had snow on the ground Tuesday, but would be enjoying “nicer weather starting tomorrow [Wednesday]. It will be in the upper 40s to 50s for the next couple of days, and they’re even saying a high of 66 Friday.”

But an Upper Midwest marketer didn’t expect to start seeing some warm-up into the 40s until around Saturday, “which is a nice coincidence because that’s the first official day of spring. I’m ready for it [spring]. I was kind of depressed Sunday when it was so cold and wet.” At least a high-pressure system over Canada kept snow “well to the south of us” Tuesday, she added.

Meanwhile, a Northeast trader said he thought the market was “a little bit better bid” Tuesday and that he was finding some incremental heating demand, but still prices didn’t move very much. Small citygate gains caused regional basis to “move out a little,” with Northeast deliveries running about 50-70 cents north of flat Henry Hub numbers. The trader noted that cash got very little new direction from Nymex, with a minuscule loss by natural gas futures and a similarly small advance by the crude oil contract amounting essentially to a wash. Heating oil and unleaded gasoline at New York Harbor recorded moderate losses.

“Tuesday prices were just about the same as Monday. No more shocking news from Spain and no noteworthy price movement,” commented a producer based in the Northeast. He said it had been snowing in his state all morning, piling up to about four inches, but further north the accumulations would probably be 8 or more inches. “There may be some cold weather next week too. March was turning out really mild, and now it looks like the last half may be the lion after all.” That had the potential for resulting in a “very strong” April bidweek, he said.

In a reflection of excess western supplies that could begin to weigh further on the regional market soon, NEGT Gas Transmission Northwest (formerly PGT) was holding an auction Tuesday in an attempt to sell up to 200,000 dekatherms of system linepack. Purchasers were required to accept the gas at either Kingsgate or Stanfield from March 17 through March 31, but the pipeline said it would give preference to bids “that take receipt of gas as early as possible during this time period.” (Kern River continued to report high linepack throughout its system, and Westcoast still had daily imbalance tolerances of zero pack and 20% draft in effect.)

“I heard about the snow back east,” said one western source. “That is some impressive weather for mid-March. But I’m in California at 70 degrees Fahrenheit and feeling fine.”

Observing such current events as 15-20 inches of snow across Iowa; afternoon temperatures 10 degrees below normal in Chicago; sub-freezing temperatures and gusty winds across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley; and heavy snows pounding Pennsylvania, the New York City metro region and New England, Weather 2000 had this commentary: “For those calling for the end of winter in late February (and also in late December and late November), it’d be interesting to see their March Madness tournament [college basketball] picks.”

The New York City-based consulting firm continued in an advisory Tuesday: “Thanks to the manner in which our planet [revolves] around the sun each year, eventually winter will come to an end. But in the meantime (two to four more weeks), we’ve warned about unbuckling the ‘Cold Seat-belts’ too early. The reservoir of cold Canadian air and the capacity to produce harsh wind chills and winter storms has not yet been depleted, and until it does (along with some helpful delivery mechanisms) visions of spring will be sporadic tantalizations for the northeast quarter of the nation.”

But the National Weather Service has a generally mild outlook for the March 22-26 business week. In its six- to 10-day forecast issued Tuesday, the government agency predicted below normal temperatures only in New England. It sees above normal readings for most of the rest of the U.S., with the “normal” exceptions being Florida, a coastal sliver of Southern California, the western Pacific Northwest and a swath running from the northern half of Minnesota through the upper Great Lakes area into New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

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