Prices were still on the rise in most cases Monday despite somewhat weaker weather fundamentals, but the gains generally were smaller than those for the weekend. A majority of increases were fairly mild in single digits, although several Northeast citygates and scattered other points rose by dime-plus amounts. A few points were flat.

At least one cash trader was rather mystified by the market’s ability to remain bullish. Although the inland West was seeing no relief from stifling hot temperatures, the 100-degree-plus highs from late last week in Texas and the Midcontinent had retreated over the weekend, and the upper parts of the South are again seeing peak readings in the 80s, he pointed out. And of course, he added, the Northeast and Midwest are still experiencing unseasonably mild conditions.

That will change, however, according to the latest six-to-10 day forecast from the National Weather Service which sees most areas of the country with above normal heat in the Aug. 16-20 time frame.

A producer said he thought traders may have been looking ahead, saying he was hearing forecasts of hotter weather in the Midwest later this week. He also believed that a lingering “hangover” from last Thursday’s storage report was still in play. And although futures movement often occurs too late in the day to influence that day’s cash market, the screen Monday was exhibiting strength from early on. It eventually retreated from gains in the teens, but still was up nearly a dime for the day.

Another source gave a nod to recent firmness in oil futures. The September crude oil contract fell a bit Monday, but managing to hang in there at a penny over $32/bbl had some pyschological significance, he said.

A Northeast trader counted himself among those unable to detect any visible means of support right now for prices. “There’s just no weather demand in the Northeast,” he said, noting that delivered prices there continue to run “25-45 cents north of Henry Hub.” He and others see mostly market doldrums this week.

The Florida market has been only a shadow of its normal summer self largely due to frequent rainstorms. However, a utility buyer said “only a little” rain fell in her area Monday, and that she was hearing that a bit of dry spell is due to start later this week.

“It’s not too hot back East,” commented a marketer. “Here in the Midwest we’ve got about 80 degrees Fahrenheit and I hear things aren’t going to change for us or the Northeast for a little while at least. Meanwhile it is hot in Houston and in the West. But how long can heat in the West and Southwest keep the rest of the market up?”

“How was my weekend? It was hot!” exclaimed a California trader. “Maybe we were getting used to cooler temperatures, but whew! I feel for anyone out working in the direct sun or in a stuffy office without good air conditioning.” Southern California temperatures were solid in the 90s, she said. A marketer chimed in that temperatures approaching 100 degrees were being felt as little as 45 miles inland from Los Angeles.

A Calgary-based source reported doing intra-Alberta deals for September on either side of C$5.90, or a little more than a nickel above his average for swing gas Monday.

The Atlantic tropical scene is staying quiet. A surface low-pressure system is moving westward well north of Puerto Rico, according to The Weather Channel. However, development prospects don’t look promising, it said.

Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper’s final estimation for this week’s storage report calls for a build of 65-75 Bcf.

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