This week’s upward march in prices didn’t end Wednesday but did come to a near-standstill. Only Rockies gains of 8-15 cents or so stood out from the vast majority of points that ranged from flat to up about a nickel. Most of those rose less than a nickel, and small declines at about half a dozen scattered points figured into the mix.

Weather fundamentals were entering something of a holding pattern, with most markets warmer than at the start of the week but still on the chilly side. Only southern Florida, the desert Southwest and California offered appreciably warm climes (although a Calgary-based producer reporting local readings around 60 degrees F. jested, “We’ve got the best of both worlds here: High [gas] prices and [relatively] warm weather. We’ve got to realize it’s only temporary, though, and real winter will come along soon.”)

The screen also stayed sedate, with gas futures meandering around flat before finally closing down 0.7 cents despite the heating oil and crude oil contracts recording substantial advances.

The weather picture will liven up soon enough, though. Portending a quick resumption of the bull market in cash, the eastern half of North America should be filming a remake of The Big Chill by Friday. Canada will be exporting something less popular than natural gas — an arctic cold front — south of the border, and its effects are due to be felt even into the Deep South.

“We felt no increase in demand for gas flowing Thursday, but by Friday it is supposed to be much cooler,” a Midcontinent marketer said. By Friday everything east of the Mississippi River will be below average, he continued. “Then next week the cold spell will spread across the eastern two-thirds of the nation and should be even colder than the remainder of this week. At that point only the West Coast states will be spared Jack Frost’s wrath…but for how long?”

While acknowledging that the weather forecast hints strongly at rising prices, one source said Thursday morning storage report from the Energy Information Administration will have a lot to do with how the late-November market plays out. “We’re looking for a small injection,” primarily because of the mild weather last week in the Southeast, he said.

A marketer quoting Florida Gas Transmission Zone 3 a little more than a nickel behind Henry Hub said that signals how weak demand has gotten in the Florida market this month. Zone 3 had commanded as much as a dime premium over the Hub as recently as late October. Not coincidentally, the reversal of price positions has been accompanied by FGT the pipeline having only a few Overage Alert Days this month following frequent and extensive ones from spring through early fall. “It’s called the ‘oil factor,'” the marketer continued, saying he was seeing a notable amount of fuel-switching to oil by power generators in Florida.

Several sources agreed that the December bidweek will be more “interesting” than most because of the four-day holiday weekend at its back end and the highly unusual schedule of the Nymex expiry (see Daily GPI, Nov. 20). “It seems like a lot of bidweek business will have to be done before the futures settlement this time,” a Canadian producer said. “That certainly should throw a monkey wrench in some people’s plans,” referring to those who almost live and die by the settlement in bidweek trading. He added, “Everything seems pretty bullish for December at this point,” largely because of the widespread weather deep-freeze anticipated for next week and into early December.

An East Coast utility buyer said his staff anticipates being “extra busy late this bidweek.” He supposed Monday and Tuesday will be the most active days, but speculated that the late Nymex closing might spur more pre-weekend trading than otherwise would occur.

Commenting on the tendency of trading on the day before Thanksgiving to be quick and extremely light, one source jested, “Some people may have to work next Wednesday that normally wouldn’t dream of doing anything then.”

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