The Minerals Management Service (MMS) on Monday reported post-Katrina shut-in natural gas production has barely inched forward in the past three days, moving to 3.784 Bcf/d compared with Friday’s report of 3.829 Bcf/d. The shut-in total, based on reports from 55 producers, is equivalent to 37.84% of the daily 10 Bcf/d gas output in the offshore. Only a few companies updated their offshore operations on Monday, and the lack of news was “not promising,” according to at least one energy analyst.

Dan Pickering of Houston-based Pickering Energy Partners said producers are continuing to wait for pipeline and gas processing damage assessments, but because there had been no “new” news over the weekend, meaningful damage is likely.

The MMS said cumulative shut-in gas production since Aug. 26 is 91.811 Bcf, which equals 2.515% of the yearly 3.65 Tcf of gas output. Initial Katrina shut-ins totaled 8.3 Bcf/d.

Shut-in oil production as of Monday was 860,636 bbl/d, equivalent to 57.38% of the daily oil production in the Gulf which is currently 1.5 million bbl/d. The cumulative shut-in oil production since Aug. 26 is 18.852 million bbl, which is equivalent to 3.443 % of the yearly production of 547.5 million bbl.

Gulf evacuations as of Monday were equivalent to 12.82% of 819 manned platforms and 2.24% of 134 rigs currently operating.

The MMS also reported there were 10 minor pipelines reported damaged in the Gulf following the hurricane, but no more details were offered. Seven of the 10 were natural gas lines, and the largest one damaged was an 8-inch oil line.

Although not confirmed by the MMS or the Coast Guard, 52 offshore platforms and rigs were either destroyed or missing, which would be double the 29 reported a week ago. Another 58 platforms and rigs were damaged. No other details were offered.

Ian Ashcroft, an energy analyst with Wood Mackenzie, said he understood 52 platforms were “affected” during Katrina, with 15 sustaining “significant” damage and 37 destroyed.

“In more detail, we believe the center of the hurricane’s critical path was through the Gulf of Mexico’s ‘bread basket,'” said Ashcroft, where the winds were in excess of 150 mile per hour. Of 4,000 Gulf platforms, he said 2,400, or 60% were exposed to tropical storm winds or higher. The worst damage was on the eastern side of Katrina’s path, along the Mississippi Canyon, in Medusa and Shell’s Mars/Ursa fields, which were “closer to the center of the storm. These are the key fields, and most of the damage is around the Mars area, West Delta 143.”

Shell, which reported damage to its Mars, Ursa and related facilities on Friday, said it did not expect to have repairs completed in the fourth quarter.

Ashcroft said “West Delta 143 holds the key to the Mars/Ursa corridor,” which is also a hub facility for the Mensa facilities. “This holds the key to about 700 MMcf/d of gas production, and it appears there is at least some damage to 143.” The leased platform drilling rig on Mars collapsed, he said, and smashed through the tension leg platform, damaging the well bay and some process facilities. “There is a question mark on the physical structure.”

Seven of the 15 natural gas processing plants in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana impacted by flooding, damage to equipment or power failure during Hurricane Katrina have begun operating again, according to a report by the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability.

Gas processors that have begun operations include two CrossTex plants, Gibson and Plaquemine; four Enterprise Products LLC plants, Calumet, Neptune, North Terrebone and Pelican; and one Williams midstream plant in Mobile, Bay, AL.

“It appears that only a few plants have sustained damage and could take a few weeks for them to come online again,” said DOE.

Of those still not in service, the DOE said Duke Energy’s Mobile Bay, AL processor is available for service, but it is awaiting a pipeline outlet for liquids. Its capacity as of Jan. 1 is 600 MMcf/d, and its 2004 average throughput was 172 MMcf/d. The BP processor in Pascagoula, MS has power restored, but it was waiting for pipelines to deliver gas. The BP plant’s capacity is 1,000 MMcf/d, and its 2004 average throughput in 2004 was 768 MMcf/d.

Dynegy Inc.’s Venice and Yscloskey, LA plants have seawater damage, which could take three to six months to repair, the DOE said. The Venice plant’s capacity is 1,300 MMcf/d, and its 2004 average throughput was 997 MMcf/d. The Yscloskey plant’s capacity is 1,850 MMcf/d, and its 2004 throughput was 1,343 MMcf/d.

Enterprise’s Toca, LA plant’s assessment is ongoing. Capacity is 1,100 MMcf/d, and its 2004 throughput was 468.4 MMcf/d. ExxonMobil’s Garden City, LA plant, with capacity of 630 MMcf/d is waiting on power. No 2004 average throughput figures were available. ExxonMobil’s Grand Isle, LA plant also is waiting on power. Its capacity is 115 MMcf/d, and last year its throughput was 72 MMcf/d. Marathon’s Burns Point, LA plant is waiting on power. Its capacity is 200 MMcf/d, and throughout in 2004 was 60 MMcf/d.

In the United States, there is a total of 572 gas processing plants, and 75% of total marketed gas production is processed before delivery.

Southern Natural Gas said Monday it had discovered damage to pipe supports at levee crossings north of the Toca (LA) Compressor Station, but believes it can complete those repairs without impacting flows. Field personnel were able to access the station itself Saturday for the first time since Hurricane Katrina’s passage, the pipeline added. “Based on a visual inspection, compressor units, liquids handling facilities and other equipment at the station were damaged by flooding. However, the full extent of the damage will not be known until initial assessments and detailed assessments can be completed.” Southern expects to finish the initial assessments by this weekend. Initial assessments of subsea pipelines are under way, but other than the riser damage noted previously, there has been no indication of significant subsea damage.

Other pipelines were reporting a variety of meter stations now accepting gas (see Transportation Notes).

W&T Offshore, Inc. on Monday revised its third quarter and full-year 2005 production guidance to reflect the impact of Katrina, especially on its Pluto development in the Mississippi Canyon. It expects to defer about 7% of its previously anticipated production this year because of the storm, said CEO Tracy W. Krohn.

“As we focus on returning our operations to their previous levels, we are pleased that 75-80% of our pre-Katrina production volumes have resumed…,” said Krohn. “In addition, we are working hard to take advantage of several opportunities before us that could result in additional wells coming on production in 2005 that were not in our original forecast. We are also pleased to note that based on our internal estimates, we believe that the proved reserves we added in first half of 2005 should replace more than 150% of our first half 2005 production.

“Although we have a good understanding of Katrina’s impact on our production, the storm’s impact on costs are less clear,” Krohn added. “Prior to the storm, our operating expenses for the year appeared to be within the low end of our guidance. However, there are too many unknown variables that may affect costs in 2005 to be able to reaffirm or change our guidance on operating expenses at this time. Of course, with 100% of our oil and gas production unhedged, we are fully benefiting from the high commodity prices, which should more than offset the negative impact of Hurricane Katrina on our net income for 2005.”

Houston-based Newfield Exploration Co. said it is continuing to assess damage to its platforms and facilities and is awaiting additional information from outside operated facilities, pipelines and onshore gathering and production infrastructure. Based on the assessments to date, total deferred production for 2005 will likely be 7-9 Bcfe. Newfield now expects total production for 2005 will be approximately 258-260 Bcfe.

Newfield began shutting in production in preparation for Katrina on Aug. 27. Since that time, approximately 2.6 Bcfe net has been deferred. Newfield has restored 90% of its operated production in the Gulf of Mexico and has approximately 60 MMcfe/d now shut-in.

The Gulf of Mexico was Newfield’s only area through the mid-1990s, but since then, it has diversified its asset base while continuing to grow in the Gulf. At year-end 2004, the Gulf represented 28% of reserves and about 47% of annual production. Newfield owns an interest in 1.9 million gross lease acres, including 413 lease blocks in shallow water and 76 lease blocks in deepwater. Its original focus was on a 700-block area offshore Louisiana.

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