Prices recorded strong gains across the board Monday as heating load remained plentiful despite warming trends in some areas such as the Midwest and sections of the South. Quotes also got modest support from industrial demand returning from its typical weekend decline.

One source speculated that considering the major cash market softness of Friday, weekend low temperatures on either side of the freezing in several areas may have been colder than they expected. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if there was some extra buying Monday for imbalance makeup purposes.

Increases ranged from about 30 cents to $2.95. All of the triple-digit upticks occurred in either the Midcontinent or the West. Only Sumas, Westcoast Station 2 and NGPL-Amarillo Mainline were trading at deficits to first-of-month indexers as of Monday.

After bottoming out Friday at 20 cents and averaging only $1.47, CenterPoint-East saw Monday’s biggest recovery. Its low was $2.50 and the average was a little more than $4.40.

Monday’s cash market was able to overcome the previous Friday’s 22.2-cent dip by December futures. It will have very strong screen backing Tuesday after the December contract rallied by 49.1 cents (see related story).

The Northeast is due to get a little colder Tuesday with most lows in the 30s, but except for upper New England, daytime highs in the 50s are fairly moderate for the first half of November. The South remains divided; highs are reaching the 70s in the region’s western end, but although the eastern half is warming a bit, highs there will remain in the 50s and 60s for the most part, although much of Florida is mild with peak temperatures around 80.

The Midwest is seeing temperatures rise, but heating load remains ample with few locations getting above the mid 40s. Sub-freezing lows are continuing in the Rockies, while chilly conditions remain in the Pacific Northwest and interior California. Even the desert Southwest is encountering a bit of heating load, with Phoenix forecast to have a low around 50 Tuesday.

PG&E allowed a high-inventory OFO to expire Sunday, and Kern River said its linepack had returned to normal systemwide after being low several days last week. However, El Paso said it was having to deal with high linepack Monday. And Northwest said during the weekend it had been experiencing excessive banking on its system north of Kemmerer (WY) Compressor Station over the previous, and it asked customers to either “stay on rate or slightly draft the system until some balancing flexibility can be regained.”

The remnants of Tropical Depression Paloma were centered along the north coast of Cuba Monday, the National Hurricane Center said. It did not anticipate redevelopment of the system, citing strong upper-level winds.

A utility buyer in the South said his area had gotten cold enough during the weekend that “we kicked the heat on for the first time” of the current heating season. The first little taste of winter in late 2008 allowed his company to pull some gas out of storage, he said, which was good because it provided some space in the utility’s storage accounts to work with. That space may be useful for arbitrage opportunities if they arise later this winter, he said.

Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective said he expects one more net storage injection of 40 Bcf for the week ending Nov. 7, then looks for the first withdrawal of the current heating season. Evans predicted a 15 Bcf pull for the week ending Nov. 14.

After a gain of 23 during the week ending Oct. 31, the number of drilling rigs searching for natural gas in the U.S. resumed a declining trend last week, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). The Gulf of Mexico lost two active rigs while the onshore tally fell by 11, bringing the total down to 1,539, Baker Hughes said. Its latest count is 1% less than a month ago but up 5% from the year-earlier level.

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