Exploration for natural gas offshore Canada’s East Coast will take patience, time and a large exploration budget, but producers also have to remain realistic about how many wells will be successful, an official with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) said last week.

Brian Maynard, CAPP’s vice president of the Atlantic region, spoke at the group’s annual conference in Calgary, and told attendees that the fledgling oil and gas patch holds promise but added that producers need to consider the long term.

“Worldwide, you’re looking at only one in 10 offshore wells that are successful,” said Maynard, and the Scotian offshore is no different. Because of the hit-and-miss success in Canada’s icy waters, some producers have halted exploration or pulled out, and Maynard agreed that enthusiasm has dragged.

Still, the once touted region holds possibilities, he said, noting that the Sable Island Offshore Energy Project is operating, which signals there are other discoveries to be made. Among them is planned exploration later this year by Houston-based Marathon Oil Co. As operator, Marathon and partner EnCana Corp. will be drilling the Crimson natural gas well in the Annapolis play.

“All eyes will be on that well,” Maynard told the Toronto Globe and Mail. “Each well does provide information that’s useful for our members to assess the overall geology.”

Industry also is counting on a return to successful exploration of the Deep Panuke project, said Maynard. Initially touted as one of the best gas plays in decades, EnCana took a time out on its exploration and development last year and is now reviewing how to proceed.

Another prospect, the Mariner I-85 well, operated by Canadian Superior Inc., was plugged and abandoned in March. Canadian Superior, partnered with El Paso Corp., is reviewing the well’s results before proceeding.

Despite the paltry drilling results on the Mariner I-85 gas well, Harvey Klingensmith, Canadian Superior’s chief operating officer said his company remains bullish on East Coast prospects. The Calgary independent has three Scotian offshore exploration projects it considers “world class” — Mariner, Marquis and Mayflower, he said.

“Nova Scotia is one of the last frontier areas, I believe, in North America,” said Klingensmith during his presentation. He estimated that nearly 200 wells have been drilled in the Scotian waters, compared with more than 40,000 in the Gulf of Mexico. The Scotian waters, he said, are “relatively unexplored.”

“You’ve got to take a long-term view,” Maynard said of the projects. “We don’t have the technology where you can drill 10 wells and hit 10 gushers. Even if you found some gas today, you’re 12 or 14 years away from production.”

Maynard said, “people have to understand that it’s a risky business. The resource isn’t just lying under the sea bed ready to scoop up. It takes perseverance and a lot of money to play the game. It’s not for the faint of heart.”

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