Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday sliced its North American natural gas price assumptions through 2013 and said with “no relief in sight for overproduction and storage,” it now assumes that gas delivered at the Henry Hub this year will sell for an average of $2.75/MMBtu.

Energy analysts also remain bearish on U.S. natural gas and said higher prices may not become more sustainable until 2015.

“The new $2.75 price assumption for 2012 represents such a significant drop that it falls beneath Moody’s previous stress-case assumption of $3.00/MMBtu,” Moody’s analysts said. The price assumptions signify “a secular shift in the ratings agency’s expectations about natural gas prices well into the future.”

Price assumptions “reflect baseline approximations — not forecasts — that the rating’s agency uses to evaluate risk when analyzing credit conditions within the oil and natural gas industry, Moody’s said.

The price assumption of $2.75 is 75 cents lower than Moody’s previous assumption, which is based on expectations for ongoing excess gas supply “caused by brisk shale production, aggravated by unusually mild winter weather that has resulted in high inventory levels in underground gas storage facilities.”

Gas prices in 2013 were set at $3.25/MMBtu, with a $3.50 price thereafter. Moody’s reduced its stress-case price to $2.00/MMBtu.

“The steep reduction in Moody’s natural gas price assumptions reflect a significant shift now under way in the natural gas market,” said Moody’s analysts. “Weak spot prices this winter suggest that exploration and production companies heavily tilted toward natural gas face significantly lower profit margins compared to recent years. Still, some of the companies highly exposed to natural gas production — though not all — have set up effective hedges to protect themselves against low prices.”

Reduced price assumptions “stem primarily from an overabundance of North American natural gas. The glut has expanded as companies rush to develop unconventional resources — particularly shale, often through partnerships with large integrated and national oil companies that reduce the selling companies’ production costs. Moody’s expects shale development to continue at a brisk pace for the foreseeable future.”

Usually, said Moody’s analysts, gas prices significantly strengthen “once cold winter weather hits the heavily populated U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions” but mild winter weather has reduced gas demand, “both from spot market sales and from underground storage.

“In fact, out of North America’s total storage capacity of about 4 Tcf of natural gas, roughly 3.2 Tcf remained in storage as of mid-January. These levels indicate inventories running about 20% above the most recent five-year average.”

The credit ratings agency reiterated its price assumptions for crude oil and still assumes prices of $90/bbl for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in 2012, $85/bbl in 2013 and $80/bbl thereafter. For Brent crude, Moody’s assumed a price of $95/bbl in 2012, $90/bbl in 2013 and $80 thereafter. A $60/bbl stress-case price was used for both WTI and Brent.

Teri Viswanath, the senior natural gas strategist for BNP Paribas, on Friday talked about her outlook for domestic gas markets in a conference call. The “very near term price outlook is bearish,” with gas prices “rising up to $5.40 [per Mcf] by 2015.” Any price recovery likely will be delayed.

“In our view, prices will average $2.70 in 2012 with slightly more downside, than currently priced in, during the seasonal storage turnaround in the spring and fall as physical system limits at tested,” she said. Stronger gas prices will come in fits and starts. In 2013 the decline in gas output should give U.S. storage some relief.

However, gas output that’s shut in or deferred because of fewer wells being drilled this year “will be brought on line in 2013, and again lead to suppressed prices in 2013,” said Viswanath.

BNP is forecasting that gas power demand in the United States will gain strength through 2015, “leading to a higher price environment, which will be nearly double from this year.”

“In 2013, we expect that prices will correct closer to last year’s levels as inventories ebb, averaging $3.85,” said Viswanath. “By 2015, we expect that prices will double from current levels given an aggressive increase in demand.”

Barclays Capital also offered a dim view for gas prices. Even though prices rallied early last week on the news that Chesapeake Energy Corp. would immediately curtail 0.5 Bcf/d and may curtail as much as 1 Bcf/d, the news only led to a “short covering rally,” said Barclays.

“However, fundamentals appear to be reasserting themselves yet again, pressuring prices lower. Lacking tangible evidence of production/drilling cuts, we expect prices to remain near current levels.”

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