Based on existing electrical facilities and proposed additions in Ontario, the Canadian province is expected to have a reliable supply of electricity for the next 10 years under a wide variety of conditions, according to a recent report issued by Ontario’s Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO).

Along with concluding that the province will have an adequate supply of electricity over the next decade, IMO also determined that opportunities exist for additional enhancements to improve the efficiency of the Ontario electricity market.

IMO has a responsibility to forecast the demand for electricity in the province and to assess whether the existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities are adequate to meet Ontario’s needs. In its latest assessment, issued in late June, IMO examined Ontario’s generation and transmission outlook from January 2002 to December 2011.

The assessments were made based on a number of key planning assumptions. Assuming a median growth scenario, energy demand for Ontario is forecast to grow at an average rate of 1.2% per year, from 152 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2002 to 168 TWh at the end of the study period. The median forecast projects peak demand to rise from 23,700 MW to 26,000 MW at the end of the study’s timeframe. A low demand growth scenario, with an average growth rate of 0.8% and high demand growth scenario with an average growth rate of 1.7%, were also studied.

Ontario Power Generation’s Pickering A units are assumed to return to service beginning in 2002 in accordance with a schedule provided by the company. IMO’s base case scenario did not account for additional capacity that may be available from a number of the proposed additional generation projects that are undergoing assessment by IMO. Also, 300 MW of demand was assumed to be dispatchable or responsive to market prices. Certain Bruce Power units, currently out of service, are also not taken into account by IMO in its study.

In addition, IMO said that the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) reliability standard, based on a loss of load expectation of not more than once in 10 years, is forecast to be met throughout the study period. The resources that are assumed to be available to supply Ontario’s forecast electricity demands for the period from 2002 to 2011 are expected to be adequate to meet the specified reserve margin requirements with only a few exceptions. For 2002, suitable alternate resource supply options are assessed to be available in the operating timeframe to manage these periods. During the mid to latter years of the study period, the construction of 2,000 MW to 3,000 MW of the 6,000 MW proposed resource additions or the development of an equivalent amount of price responsive demand, will be sufficient to enable the NPCC reliability standard to be met.

Along with considering the adequacy of existing generation, IMO’s outlook also estimated the collective impact of all proposed new generation projects. If all generation proposals are built and operated, the amount of generation that is exclusively gas-fueled would comprise about 21% of the installed capacity within Ontario by 2005. Another 6% of the installed capacity would be dual-fueled with gas. IMO has not studied the adequacy of gas supplies or the adequacy of the gas supply infrastructure in Ontario, but supports the initiation of a multi-party study in the near future.

The potential shutdown or fuel substitution of the Lakeview generating station by 2005 was not explicitly considered in the assessment. However, sensitivity studies indicate that the need date for additional resources could be advanced from 2009 to as early as 2006 for the median growth demand scenario.

IMO’s 10-year outlook for Ontario can be downloaded from its web site at www.iemo.com.

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