Dry natural gas production in June from the Lower 48 states was higher than a year earlier and proved resilient from May, lifted mostly by sharp increases in the Marcellus Shale, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Form 914 data.

Lower 48 output climbed in June from May by 0.1%, or 110 MMcf/d. In the latest report, issued on Friday, EIA revised upward the May gas number by 140 MMcf/d because of a revision in Texas production, which led to an overall increase in May from April by 130 MMcf/d (see NGI, Aug. 5).

The latest 914 data, gathered from producers, indicated that the Marcellus Shale states within the “Other States” category, which includes Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, had the largest volume increases month/month, up 2%, or 510 MMcf/d. The only other areas of the Lower 48 to see higher gas output from May to June were Wyoming, up by 150 MMcf/d (2.7%), and New Mexico, which was 30 MMcf/d higher.

Platform shut-ins for scheduled maintenance and repairs pulled down Gulf of Mexico gas production by 7%, or 260 MMcf/d, month/month. Also lower from May was Texas gas output, which fell 0.9%, or by 210 MMcf/d, in part because of a shuttered carbon dioxide plant, regulators said.

Total U.S. gas consumption dropped 8% in June y/y to 1,726 Bcf, or 57.5 Bcf/d. Withdrawals in the Lower 48 states fell 0.1%, or 110 MMcf/d gross, despite the shuttered GOM wells.

“Production…came in about 200 MMcf/d higher than pipeline flow estimates,” said Barclays Capital’s Biliana Pehlivanova and Shiyang Wang. “Overall, although June data confirmed that Lower 48 production growth on a y/y basis continues to be lower than last year’s levels, production growth has, nevertheless, been more resistant than our previous expectations.”

The June data “is the second month of production data that are not affected by well freeze-offs,” said the duo (see NGI, March 25). “The moderate growths shown in May and June indicate that production has maintained its upward trajectory, while the large declines that we saw during the winter months were largely due to weather-related well freeze-offs.”

The higher June output “is unlikely to be the end of production growth, as pipeline flow estimates suggest that production established new highs in July,” Barclays said.

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. in a note last week said the “freight train keeps on chugging” for U.S. onshore gas production. “If production stays flat at June ’13 levels, full-year ’13 onshore supply growth will be 1.3 Bcf/d-plus y/y.” Analysts haven’t changed their $3.50-4.25/Mcf price forecast, “but unless supply drops” in the second half of this year, “it is a low probability that price tests the high end of that range in ’14.”