Although moderating temperatures are in the Wednesday forecast for the Midwest and Midcontinent, growing heating load in the South and Northeast along with a prior-day 14-cent increase by March futures were able to generate sizeable gains at all points but one Tuesday.

A drop of about 15 cents at the Carthage Hub along the Louisiana border in East Texas was the sole exception to upticks ranging from about a dime to about $4.65.

Northeast and Florida citygates were joined by several Gulf Coast points in recording triple-digit increases; several of the Gulf Coast spikes were spurred by pipeline restrictions or warnings of possible restrictions. For instance, Florida Gas Transmission’s posting about the potential for an Overage Alert Day being declared caused the Florida citygate to see Tuesday’s biggest gain, while Florida Gas Zone 3 was up nearly $1.55. And Tuesday’s implementation of an OFO by Southern Natural Gas and Tennessee’s warning of a potential OFO due to excessive negative imbalances caused dollar-plus advances into Southern and Tennessee’s 500 Leg pool.

It seemed rather curious that the demarc and Ventura trading points on Northern Natural Gas fell 14 cents each Monday while the pipeline had two System Overrun Limitations (SOL) in place for Tuesday due to market-area low temperatures being predicted around zero or less, but both points were up strongly Tuesday even with the SOLs being lifted for Wednesday and the Minneapolis area low of minus 2 Tuesday being predicted to rise into the upper teens Wednesday.

The Northeast can expect another winter storm Wednesday, although it will not be anywhere near the beast that struck the region last week. However, it will produce lows in the teens, single digits and in some cases zero or less. Wednesday lows in the South will range from the 20s and a few high teens at the eastern end to the 30s and 40s at the western end.

Midcontinent/Midwest numbers were up strongly in spite of both areas having higher temperatures in the Wednesday forecast. But Midwestern heating load didn’t see much reduction with temperatures still bottoming out in the teens mostly.

Above-normal temperatures in the Rockies, where Denver should top out around 63 Wednesday, did not seem conducive to higher prices. Yet quotes rose throughout a mostly cool to mild West. Excess supply issues also seemed like they should have precluded gains at some western points. Kern River continued to report high linepack in the three farthest downstream of its four segments Tuesday, while Westcoast said its linepack was high systemwide.

A Midcontinent producer noted that although cash prices were strong for most of Tuesday’s trading session, they were moving lower in late deals. For that reason, the 4.4-cent loss by March futures Tuesday and predictions of warmer weather in the Midcontinent/Midwest later this week, he expects falling quotes in the physical market Wednesday.

The abundance of gas in storage remains a bearish influence on the market, the producer continued. He thinks more people are starting to understand that it’s to their current advantage to take out maximum quantities of the storage gas they bought last summer at $10-12 when it’s so easy to replace it for much less than half of those kind of prices now. He also noted another factor that will keep him a hardline bear for the foreseeable future: it’s looking increasingly clear that LNG imports into the U.S. will be ramping up strongly this year.

The producer was puzzled by Tuesday’s NGPL market. Usually NGPL-TexOk runs about 80 cents above NGPL-Midcontinent pricing, but Tuesday the TexOk premium was only about 40 cents. He was unaware of any particular reason for the TexOk weakness.

Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans looks for a very large storage withdrawal report this week but shrinking ones thereafter. He projected pulls of 210 Bcf, 160 Bcf and 90 Bcf for the weeks ending Jan. 30, Feb. 6 and Feb. 13, respectively. Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates is projecting a 183 Bcf draw for the week ending Jan. 30.

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