With the significantly colder weather that had largely been absent from the forecast for Tuesday due to show up Wednesday in several regions, along with a little added boost from the previous day’s 9.4-cent futures advance, cash prices recorded gains at a large majority of locations Tuesday.

Northeast quotes that were flat to nearly 15 cents lower were the exceptions to overall market strength. The region, while having a chilly forecast for Wednesday, was able to hold off price increases for another day, but is due to see a cold front accompanied by rain and snow showers moving in Thursday, according to The Weather Channel (TWC).

The rest of the market saw upticks ranging from about a nickel to a little more than $2.05.

The prior-day screen support for Tuesday’s cash market will turn negative Wednesday after January futures fell 18 cents (see related story).

The Rockies market, which had seen triple-digit losses Monday due to unseasonably mild regional weather Monday and Tuesday and pipeline constraints, was rebounding by similar amounts Tuesday. A Questar Overthrust maintenance project that reduced Rockies Express takeaway capacity was scheduled for Tuesday only. And unusually mild Rockies weather is about to take a dive, with Denver’s expected high in the low 60s Tuesday due to be replaced by one in the mid 30s Wednesday, along with a low around 19.

It will be a snowy Wednesday for much of the Midwest, TWC said. Although Chicago will see little change from temperatures around freezing, such locations as Des Moines, IA, and Minneapolis can expect lows in the low to mid teens, according to Madison, WI-based Weather Central.

Florida Gas Transmission’s issuance of an Overage Alert Day due to freezing lows predicted for Wednesday morning in central and northern Florida (see Transportation Notes) resulted in gains of about 20 cents or more at Florida Gas Zones 2 and 3 in the production area and nearly 30 cents at the Florida citygate.

Despite the frigid Florida prediction, most of the rest of the South will be in a moderate warming trend that will keep low temperatures above the freezing level.

Looking a little further down the road, Transco indicated how Northeastern heating load will be rising substantially later this week by issuing a systemwide Imbalance OFO for Friday (see Transportation Notes).

Westcoast appeared to have the only problem with excess supply in the West, reporting both Monday and Tuesday that “system linepack has climbed strongly.” However, it maintained its normal imbalance tolerance range of the minimum of 10% or 500 GJ.

With the screen “struggling” Tuesday, a Gulf Coast producer said that could tend to put a brake on further cash gains Wednesday despite the colder forecasts. He noted that the January contract had begun the day higher, then came off to negative territory before seeing a “little bounce” at the end. That makes it questionable about where cash prices will go Wednesday, he said.

The futures influence may not matter much, though, the producer continued. With hurricane season over and storage withdrawal season under way, weather is pretty much what the cash market is all about these days, he said.

Another Gulf Coast trader said she also considered it a toss-up on cash price direction Wednesday. It’s a matter of whether the colder weather will trump prior-day screen weakness or vice versa, she said.

Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans looks for storage withdrawal reports climbing from 80 Bcf for the week ending Nov. 28 to 95 Bcf and 115 Bcf for the weeks ending Dec. 5 and Dec. 12, respectively. Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said his current projected pull of 70 Bcf for the week ending Nov. 28 is down from an earlier estimate of 80 Bcf.

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