If the Pacific Northwest gets most of the 28,000 MW of natural gas-fired combined-cycle power plants now planned for the region, its natural gas demand will shoot up to 2.5 times current levels, according to an engineer and gas analyst from the region who spoke last week at a two-day industry conference in Seattle.

However, analyses of natural gas exploration and production and proven reserves, in the U.S. overall and for the Northwest, leave a lot of doubt as to how long there will be sufficient supplies to fuel the surge in gas-fired power plant develeopment, according to a presentation by David Warren, an official with the Last Mile Electric Coop of Olympia, WA, speaking Jan. 17 at the conference on “Buying and Selling Electric Power in the West.”

With the Pacific Northwest dependent on its gas supplies from either Western Canada or the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S., Warren said that reserves in Western Canada have not been expanded in the last 10 years, and more than half the U.S. supplies are coming from wells that are less than three years old.

“We’re drilling deeper for less gas,” said Warren, adding that the Pacific Northwest is “somewhat of an isolated market” if you map all of the gas flows throughout the U.S. “If you’re a marketer or producer of natural gas, where are you going to expand your markets? An example, a few years ago, was when we tried to expand capacity from the Rocky Mountains; just about every producer there said, [they were] going to the Midwest.”

As a result, Warren, who has analyzed natural gas supply scenarios for the State of Washington, said there has been no capacity expansion from the Rockies, although there has been some from Western Canada.

Ultimately, he thinks hydrogen would be the answer for the Northwest as well as the nation overall, using abundant supplies of sea water and coal. In the interim, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports may get a boost, given that almost three quarters of the world’s gas reserves are found in the former Soviet Union countries and the Middle East, principally Iran and Qatar.

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