While Northeast citygates continued a rapid descent from last week’s stratospheric price levels, the rest of the market had several flat to higher points Monday but mostly saw moderate declines of up to a little more than 20 cents. The larger non-Northeast losses tended to cluster in the Midcontinent. Transco Station 45 was something of an anomaly with a 40-cent gain.

The Northeast could anticipate a little respite Tuesday from a tremendous snowstorm that is already being labeled “The Blizzard of 2005.” However, it and the Midwest won’t be getting much of a weather break.

Although not expected to be as severe as the most recent wintry punishment, an “Alberta Clipper” is due to move through the border sections of the Upper Midwest Tuesday, leaving colder air in that region and the northern Plains in its wake Wednesday, according to The Weather Channel (TWC). The clipper was expected to proceed into the Northeast by Tuesday evening, adding only light snows to the huge amounts that residents of the region were still trying to dig out from Monday but keeping high temperatures ranging from the single digits in northern New England to the 40s in the Mid-Atlantic, TWC said.

One source said it’s a tough call to make, but based on the relief from intense cold in the northern market areas being relatively minor and the screen’s advance of nearly a quarter Monday, he expects modest rallies Tuesday in the Midwest, Northeast and possibly the Midcontinent. Firming is a considerably more iffy prospect in the Gulf Coast and West, he said, where temperatures above seasonal averages are predicted to prevail this week.

So much for the market’s brief fling Friday with Henry Hub cash numbers in the highly unusual (at least in recent months) position of trading nearly 20 cents above the screen. Combining the 23.6-cent increase in February futures Monday with flat quotes at the Hub returned the screen to its normal premium standing, albeit by only about a nickel.

A Midwestern marketer says what are expected to be “major storage withdrawals” in the next two EIA reports should keep a floor under spot prices for a while even if fundamental heating load drops between now and early February. However, he said getting a grasp on weather influences remains problematic. Not only do the outlooks of various forecasters diverge at times, but he reported getting three revisions of the near-term prediction from the same company Monday.

Fallout from the storage report debacle on the day before Thanksgiving, when December futures shot up more than a dollar on expiration day after EIA reported a pull significantly above industry expectations, is still ongoing, the marketer continued. His customers are in the process of paying their December energy bills, and the huge increase in their gas costs that was totally unnecessary has led “three big ones” to inform his company that they are returning to their local utilities for service. If EIA had reported “the real 17 Bcf” draw (instead of the erroneous 49 Bcf figure that was corrected a week later), the screen likely would have gone down Nov. 24, the marketer said, and he might have been able to retain his clients’ business.

It was “fabulous weather” in Denver Monday and is supposed to stay fairly mild into the weekend, a Rocky Mountains trader observed.

Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper made a preliminary estimate of a more than 200 Bcf withdrawal to be reported for the week ending Jan. 21. Due to a business trip, Cooper will not release his final estimation until Wednesday.

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