As if the natural gas market needed more bullish indicators, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The NOAA seasonal hurricane outlook calls for 12 to 15 tropical storms, with six to eight systems becoming hurricanes, and two to four of those major hurricanes.

“NOAA’s 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50% probability of an above-normal season, a 40% probability of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season,” said David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service.

The active hurricane forecast was in tune with the one produced by Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasters William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach, who updated their seasonal forecast in April (see NGI, April 5).

NOAA noted that similar seasons averaged two to three landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States, and one to two hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea.

“Last year three tropical storms and three hurricanes affected the United States. Hurricane Isabel caused 17 deaths and more than $3 billion in damages,” said Michael Brown, undersecretary for Homeland Security, which joined NOAA in making the announcement. “We cannot stop these storms, but we can take steps to limit our vulnerability. Awareness and preparedness for hurricanes, and even tropical storms, and knowing what to do to mitigate their devastating effects, are our best defense.”

For the central Pacific, NOAA forecasters are calling for four to five tropical cyclones, which is typical for that area. The central Pacific hurricane season also runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

With the prediction of an active hurricane season, the Atlantic hurricane outlook looks to continue a streak of above-normal activity that began in 1995. Since then, all but two Atlantic hurricane seasons (the El Nino years of 1997 and 2002) have been above normal.

NOAA scientists are predicting neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions through July, with expectations that the conditions will continue through the peak August-October months of the hurricane season. Forecasters said the main factors in the above-normal outlook are the active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal and a continuation of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions are associated with circulation patterns that favor an above-normal hurricane season.

NOAA said it will issue an update to this year’s hurricane outlook on Aug. 10.

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