El Nino once again is poised to put a damper on winter gas demand across the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated in an update. NOAA said the El Nino influence will be weaker than the very strong 1997-98 version, but will still impact temperature and precipitation patterns. Above normal temperatures are expected across the northern tier of the nation from October through March. NOAA showed no probabilities of below normal temperatures anywhere in the country.

With nearly half of the United States experiencing drought, the fall/winter outlook only offers “limited relief,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jack Kelly, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While some improvement in the drought is possible, namely across the Southwest and southern and central Plains states, it may not be enough to alleviate dry conditions entirely, particularly in the Northwest, Northeast, MidAtlantic, and the Ohio Valley.”

NOAA expects El Nino’s fall and winter impacts to include: drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and MidAtlantic states during fall; drier-than-average conditions in the northern Rockies and the Ohio Valley states during the winter; wetter-than-average conditions in the southern tier of states during winter; and warmer-than-average conditions in the northern tier of the United States during winter.

In the fall in the Pacific Northwest and MidAtlantic states, drier than normal conditions are expected. Over the rest of the United States, there are equal chances that rainfall will be above normal, normal or below normal. Above normal temperatures are expected in southern parts of Florida, and in the Southwest. Over the rest of the United States, there are equal chances for temperatures to be above normal, normal or below normal.

In the winter, below-normal precipitation is expected in the Northwest, including Washington, northeastern Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, western parts of North Dakota, and northwest South Dakota. Precipitation also is expected to be below normal in the Ohio Valley states. Temperatures are expected to be above normal across the northwestern, midwestern and northeastern states of the continental United States. Over the rest of the continental United States, there are equal chances for precipitation and temperatures to be above normal, normal, or below normal. For more details, go to NOAA’s web site: https://www.noaa.gov/

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